Trail Blazers vs Cavaliers

Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers are heavy home favorites on the moneyline, hosting a Portland team that’s 8-12, on a three-game skid, and flying in on the second night of a back-to-back after blowing a late lead in Toronto. With Jarrett Allen, Max Strus and Larry Nance Jr. still out, Cleveland is shorthanded up front and on the wings, but they retain their core of Mitchell, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley against a Blazers group missing major creators like Scoot Henderson, Jrue Holiday and season-long absentee Damian Lillard. Cleveland’s recent form has been volatile (3–3 over the last six) but includes a 135-point outburst in Indiana, while Portland’s undermanned rotation has leaned heavily on Deni Avdija, Shaedon Sharpe and Jerami Grant just to stay competitive. Historically, Mitchell (24.7 points per game vs Portland) and Garland (18.9 points, 7.2 assists per game vs the Blazers) have consistently produced in this matchup, whereas Grant’s career 13.9 points per game against Cleveland is more modest, reinforcing the talent gap. I’m backing the Cavaliers on the moneyline but grading it a **B** because the win probability is high yet the -480 price offers limited standalone value, best used as a parlay anchor; Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:37am

Portland’s offense has been feisty behind Avdija, Sharpe and Grant, but three games in four nights and a road back-to-back in Cleveland — with key guards like Henderson and Holiday still sidelined and Lillard out for the year — set up clear fatigue and depth concerns against a physical Cavs defense. Cleveland is also missing multiple perimeter spacers (Strus, Merrill) and frontcourt pieces (Allen, Nance), which tends to drag them into more half-court possessions built around Mitchell–Garland pick‑and‑roll and Mobley post touches rather than a pure track meet. Recent totals for these teams have generally landed in the low-to-mid 230s, and their March meeting finished 122–111 (233 points), so a 240.5 number sits above both recent scoring profiles and the historical head-to-head baseline. With the Blazers on tired legs and both rotations thinned by injuries, I prefer **Under 240.5 (-105)** and grade it **B+**, acknowledging some risk if Cleveland’s guards stay red-hot but trusting pace and depth factors to keep this below the inflated total; Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:37am

Darius Garland’s ability to control tempo and repeatedly exploit Portland’s shaky perimeter defense makes Cleveland appealing against the spread, especially with the Blazers coming off a draining, narrow loss in Toronto that extended their losing streak and forced heavy minutes on Avdija, Sharpe, Grant and Donovan Clingan. Even with the Cavs missing Allen and Nance inside, Mobley’s length plus a guard trio of Mitchell, Garland and Max Strus’s replacements should stress a Blazers roster already missing Henderson, Holiday and Lillard, and leaning on young wings and bench pieces for creation. The last time these teams met in March, Cleveland won 122–111 on the road behind 27 points and eight assists from Garland, showing they can clear a double-digit margin even without full health — and now they’re at home in Rocket Arena with the situational edge of rest and travel. At **Cavaliers -10 (-110)** I’m willing to lay the points and grade this **B+**, given Cleveland’s superior shot creation and Portland’s fatigue-driven downside, while respecting the chance of a late backdoor if the Cavs empty the bench; Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:37am