Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs

With both clubs sitting on 35 games played, the moneyline comes down to whether Toronto’s current three-game skid is more concerning than Pittsburgh’s just-ended eight-game slide, and in this spot the combination of home ice, healthier star forwards and sustained matchup success tilts me toward the Maple Leafs at -130. Toronto has already beaten this Penguins roster twice this season, including a 7-2 drubbing in Pittsburgh and a furious third-period comeback win at Scotiabank Arena, and they remain the slightly better offensive team overall, averaging 3.11 goals per game versus Pittsburgh’s 3.03 despite an anemic 13.3% power play that should positively regress. Pittsburgh’s elite 29.6% power play and Sidney Crosby’s long history of torching the Leafs are real concerns, but the Penguins are still missing Evgeni Malkin and Blake Lizotte down the middle, their blue line depth is thinned by injuries, and they’ve been bleeding chances during this recent skid even after swapping Tristan Jarry for Stuart Skinner. Toronto’s issues are mostly on a banged-up blue line and in net behind Joseph Woll, yet their forward core of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares is intact, and they’ve driven play well at five-on-five while coaching and staff changes around Craig Berube could provide a short-term jolt in a nationally televised home game before the break. At a fair but not cheap -130, I grade this moneyline as a B: the Leafs’ offensive ceiling and matchup edge justify them as favorites, but recent volatility on both sides and Pittsburgh’s special-teams advantage keep it shy of true premium value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 23/12/2025 09:23am

The total of 6 looks a touch low for a matchup between a Penguins team allowing 3.09 goals per game and a Leafs side giving up 3.34, especially when you factor in the way these specific rosters have played each other and the current injury profiles on both blue lines, so I lean to Over 6 at -115. Toronto’s offense still runs through Matthews, Nylander and Tavares, and even with their power play stuck at the bottom of the league, they’ve generated enough five-on-five chances to hang crooked numbers, as shown by their earlier 7-goal outburst in Pittsburgh and multiple multi-goal third-period pushes at home. Pittsburgh counters with Crosby in vintage form, Bryan Rust finishing at a strong clip, and Erik Karlsson quarterbacking a top-three power play that should stress a Leafs penalty kill that’s been outstanding statistically but is missing several regular defensemen and leaning heavily on depth options. On the Penguins’ side, injuries to Evgeni Malkin and multiple defensemen plus recent goaltending turbulence — even after bringing in Stuart Skinner — raise their defensive floor in the wrong direction, while Toronto’s own goaltending picture is unsettled behind Joseph Woll with Anthony Stolarz sidelined and the team coming off multiple defensive letdowns on this losing streak. Given that two of their recent meetings have already cleared this number comfortably, and both teams profile closer to 6.2–6.5 combined goals based on season-long scoring rates, the Over at -115 earns a B: solid, but not elite, value given some risk that Toronto’s struggling power play or Pittsburgh’s recent scoring drought reappears. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 23/12/2025 09:23am

On the puckline, the choice is between swallowing heavy juice with Pittsburgh +1.5 at -220 or chasing a plus-money Toronto blowout at -1.5 with +180, and given how these teams currently look, I prefer taking the safer side with the Penguins +1.5 despite the price, grading it a B-. Toronto has hammered Pittsburgh once already this season and rallied late in another meeting, but the context has shifted: the Penguins just snapped an eight-game losing streak, Crosby is still driving elite minutes, and the roster — confirmed via ESPN — now features Stuart Skinner and Brett Kulak stabilizing a back end that had been leaking badly when Arturs Silovs was getting pulled and the defense was even more depleted. The Leafs, meanwhile, come in on a three-game slide, and although their scoring talent is unquestioned, they’re missing multiple regular defensemen, juggling pairings, and dealing with coaching-staff upheaval plus mounting pressure from sitting last in the Atlantic, all of which tends to produce higher-variance performances and late-game volatility rather than steady multi-goal wins. Factor in Pittsburgh’s strong power play versus Toronto’s league-worst power play, plus the Penguins’ incentive to clamp down defensively on national TV before the break, and a one-goal game — in either direction — feels more likely than another runaway, but the -220 price and Toronto’s proven ability to blow this team out once already keep this from anything higher than a B-. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 23/12/2025 09:23am