Penguins vs Kraken

Sidney Crosby drives into Seattle with Pittsburgh having just snapped a three-game skid and then dropping a shootout heartbreaker to Columbus, while the Kraken limp home from a 1-3-1 Eastern swing but still riding a 3-0-2 heater in their last five at Climate Pledge and a 4-game winning streak against the Penguins overall. Pittsburgh’s blue line is dinged up with Erik Karlsson on injured reserve and Caleb Jones sidelined, yet the roster is still headlined by Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust up front with Kris Letang anchoring the back end, and their elite power play and top-tier team defense have combined to allow just over two goals per game across the last few weeks. Seattle counters with Matty Beniers between Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle plus Vince Dunn on the point, but a bottom-of-the-league penalty kill and a tendency to get out-shot put a lot of stress on Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer, which is dangerous against a Penguins side that already owns multiple multi-point efforts from Crosby in this matchup and is chasing critical points in a tight Metropolitan playoff race. Even with the Kraken’s strong all-time mark in the series and home-ice comfort, the combination of Pittsburgh’s special-teams edge, superior defensive metrics, and higher-end finishing talent makes the Penguins at -125 a justified short favorite with enough value for a B-grade moneyline play rather than a premium hammer. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/01/2026 09:30

Both teams’ current form points toward a total leaning over 5.5, with Pittsburgh emerging from a scoring funk by hanging six on Philadelphia and generally playing in games that average just over six combined goals, while Seattle’s recent 5-3, 4-2 and 4-7 scorelines reveal a group that can trade chances when its forecheck is rolling but still bleeds against top offenses. The Kraken’s 5-3-2 stretch over their last 10 has featured a mix of tight defensive wins and higher-scoring losses, yet their porous penalty kill gives Crosby, Malkin, Rust and Rickard Rakell repeated opportunities against a unit that already struggled to contain them in November’s OT meeting; at the same time, Dunn, McCann and Beniers have consistently found ways to exploit Pittsburgh in transition and on the power play in this series. The main drag on the Over is that Stuart Skinner and the Penguins’ structure have driven one of the league’s best recent goals-against numbers, so a true defensive chokehold is in play if they dictate pace and keep Seattle to the outside, but at a 5.5 total, the combination of both clubs’ power plays, the Kraken’s penalty-kill weakness, and the urgency of midseason playoff positioning nudges this toward a 3-2 game with strong overtime or empty-net equity. With the Over priced around -122, the probability edge is there but the juice and Pittsburgh’s defensive ceiling cap it at a B- recommendation rather than a stronger conviction. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/01/2026 09:30

Given how often Penguins–Kraken games skew tight—Seattle owns a 7-2 all-time edge but multiple wins have come by a single goal or via late separation—the safer way to leverage the matchup dynamics is taking the Kraken at +1.5, even at a steep -286. Pittsburgh’s recent surge in defensive efficiency, plus Skinner’s solid form and a still-deep blue line with Letang and Ryan Graves, makes a multi-goal road blowout less likely, especially with Karlsson and several depth pieces nursing injuries that could limit their five-on-five dominance; on the other side, Seattle’s top six of Beniers, McCann, Eberle and Eeli Tolvanen, backed by Dunn on the point, has repeatedly generated key goals against Pittsburgh and just came through an Eastern swing where they were competitive almost every night despite the 1-3-1 record. Factor in a Kraken team that’s been banking points at home, a series history that includes OT and one-goal results, and the reality that both clubs are in the thick of their respective divisional playoff chases—encouraging conservative third-period game management rather than reckless gambling for extra margin—and Kraken +1.5 profiles as a high-probability, low-upside angle that merits only a B- grade because the heavy juice limits the long-term value even if the cover rate should be strong. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/01/2026 09:30