Penguins vs Senators

The Penguins arrive on a six-game losing streak while the Senators have stabilized a bit with wins in two of their last three after a rough stretch, which makes this feel like a classic buy-low spot on the road dog given how well Pittsburgh has driven offense all season. Significant injuries cut both ways: Pittsburgh is missing Evgeni Malkin plus depth pieces like Blake Lizotte and Caleb Jones, while Ottawa is without key spine players Lars Eller, Thomas Chabot, and Shane Pinto, leaving the Sens thinner down the middle and on the back end than the Pens are up front. Historically, Pittsburgh has handled this matchup well, banking points in the vast majority of games against Ottawa over the last decade and consistently pushing contests at Canadian Tire Centre to the wire, and that history is backed by a current profile that includes elite special teams (top-tier power play and strong penalty kill) against a Senators group hampered by one of the league’s weakest PKs. With Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, and Erik Karlsson still driving a 3.22 goals-per-game attack and Pittsburgh 8-3-4 on the road, taking the Penguins at 143 offers decent value if you project them closer to the low-40s in win probability rather than what this price implies in the high-30s. I grade this play a B-: the recent skid and missing Malkin keep it short of premium, but the combination of matchup history, special-teams edge, and plus money on a still-positive differential side makes it a reasonable single-unit stab. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 09:29am

Current form screams volatility, and that tilts me toward goals with this total sitting at 6.5 and the Over priced at -105. Pittsburgh’s six-game skid has been driven more by leaky defending than an anemic attack, with the Penguins allowing close to four goals per night over their last 10 while still scoring at a healthy clip themselves, and now they face a Senators team averaging just over three goals for and three-plus against on the season. The injury picture matters here: Ottawa’s blue line is weakened by Thomas Chabot’s absence, and without Lars Eller and Shane Pinto to soak up tough middle-six and PK minutes, the Sens are leaning even more on Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Jake Sanderson in high-leverage situations, which tends to open games up. On the other side, the Penguins miss Malkin’s play-driving but still bring an elite power play into a matchup with one of the NHL’s worst penalty kills, a combination that points toward high-danger chances and special-teams scoring. Given Ottawa’s tendency to trade chances and Pittsburgh’s recent run of track-meet losses, I see enough offensive upside on both benches to justify Over 6.5 at -105 with a B grade: not a slam dunk, but a solid number in a game where seven-plus goals land often enough to make the juice fair. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 09:29am

With Ottawa favored on the moneyline but still far from a defensive juggernaut, the puckline value leans toward grabbing Pittsburgh at +1.5 goals despite their current losing streak. Even in this skid, many Penguins games have stayed within a goal, and their overall road profile (strong record, solid shot share, and top-end power play) suggests they’re more likely to hang around than to get blown out, especially against a Senators team that has been wildly inconsistent and is missing key contributors down the middle and on the back end. Historically this matchup in Ottawa has tilted toward tight finishes, with recent meetings at Canadian Tire Centre frequently going to overtime, and that pattern aligns with the current rosters: Pittsburgh still rolls out Crosby, Rust, and Karlsson, while Ottawa counters with Stutzle, Tkachuk, Batherson, and Sanderson, giving both sides enough high-end talent that one-goal games are more common than multi-goal routs. Given that context, laying -170 for the extra 1.5 goals on a live road underdog has better risk management and a higher hit rate than chasing Ottawa by margin, so I grade Penguins +1.5 a B+: the price is a bit steep, but the combination of historical one-goal variance and current form makes this a strong parlay anchor or larger straight bet for more conservative bankrolls. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 09:29am