Penguins vs Canadiens

With Pittsburgh riding a seven-game winless streak and coming off a 4-0 shutout loss in Ottawa, the combination of shaky recent form, Evgeni Malkin and several depth pieces on injured reserve, and a newly configured crease of Stuart Skinner and Arturs Silovs makes it hard to trust the Penguins on the road despite Sidney Crosby’s ongoing excellence and their still-dangerous power play built around him and Erik Karlsson. Montreal, by contrast, has gone 3-1-1 in its last five, just handled Chicago 4-1 at home behind Jakub Dobes and emerging contributors like Zack Bolduc and Lane Hutson, and recently beat these same Penguins 4-2 in Pittsburgh with Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky driving the attack, even while dealing with long-term absences to Patrik Laine, Alex Newhook, and Kirby Dach. Pittsburgh’s historical edge in this matchup, including points in 19 of the last 24 against Montreal and an 8-0-3 run in its last 11 visits to Bell Centre, keeps this from elite value, but with the Canadiens healthier at the top of the lineup, in better five-on-five form, and holding home-ice and last change, I’m backing Montreal on the moneyline at around -140 with a B-grade: a solid but not spectacular edge that justifies a standard stake, recognizing the risk that Pittsburgh’s talent finally breaks through. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:37

The total at 6 feels a touch high given how this matchup and these rosters set up right now, with Pittsburgh stuck in a finishing funk during its seven-game skid and coming off back-to-back games where it scored two or fewer, while Montreal has tightened up defensively behind Dobes, who held Chicago to 15 shots and one goal and earlier backstopped a 2-1 road win in Toronto. The Canadiens are also missing significant offensive ceiling with Laine, Newhook, and Dach sidelined, which shortens their scoring depth even as the top six with Nick Suzuki and Caufield continues to generate chances, and Pittsburgh’s best offensive weapon at the moment is a red-hot power play that can be game-changing but doesn’t guarantee a track meet at five-on-five. Given Dobes’ recent form, the Canadiens’ improving defensive structure, and a Penguins group that’s pressing and struggling at even strength, I lean to Under 6 at roughly 105, grading it a B- because the plus-money and recent trends are appealing but the presence of elite shot-creators like Crosby, Karlsson, Caufield, and Hutson always leaves the door cracked for a late special-teams or empty-net flurry to push this to six or seven. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:37

On the puckline, backing Montreal -1.5 at around 170 is more volatile but intriguing, leaning into the possibility that Pittsburgh’s crisis of confidence continues after being outscored 29-15 during its seven-game slide and already losing 4-2 to these Habs on home ice earlier this month, a result that would have cashed the Canadiens’ -1.5. Montreal has shown an ability to pull away at Bell Centre when Dobes is dialed in and their mobile blue line led by Hutson, Noah Dobson, and (if available) Mike Matheson controls tempo, and the Penguins’ injuries up front and on the back end have forced more minutes onto aging stars who are now being asked to chase games rather than protect leads. Still, Crosby’s long history of torching Montreal, Pittsburgh’s strong special teams, and the fact that several losses in this skid have been by a single goal or in overtime make this more of a higher-variance, price-driven play than a confident projection of dominance, so I grade Canadiens -1.5 at C+: worth a smaller, speculative stake only if you’re comfortable with the added risk in exchange for the bigger payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:37