Steelers vs Lions

The Lions’ moneyline at -325 is steep, but with Detroit boasting the NFL’s top scoring attack and a balanced fifth-ranked rushing and third-ranked passing game, it’s hard to fade them at home against a Steelers defense missing T.J. Watt and likely Nick Herbig from its edge rotation. Pittsburgh has won two straight and four of six behind Rodgers’ efficient play — including 224 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Week 15 win over Miami — yet their offensive line is banged up and now has to block Aidan Hutchinson and a front seven that still generates pressure at a top-tier rate despite a ravaged secondary. Detroit has dropped two of its last three (and is 2-2 in its last four), but they’ve been trading blows with playoff-caliber teams, while the Steelers enter with a shaky point differential and now travel off a short week into a fully engaged dome atmosphere with the AFC North lead on their shoulders and the Lions clinging to NFC Wild Card life. Between Detroit’s explosive playmakers (Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs) against Pittsburgh’s compromised pass rush and the Lions’ strong home-field profile, I’m backing Detroit to simply win the game on the moneyline at -325 with a B+ grade for high win probability but modest value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 12:02.

The Over 52 at -110 gets a B grade because this matchup combines an elite Lions offense with a leaky Lions defense and a Steelers unit that’s quietly finding rhythm under Rodgers, all in a fast track environment. Detroit has allowed 27 or more points in four straight and is coming off a 41-34 shootout loss to the Rams, a stretch fueled by major attrition in the secondary (Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph among the key absences) and multiple offensive line and defensive back injuries still populating the Week 16 report. On the other side, Pittsburgh just hung 28 on Miami, has topped 24 in three of its last four, and now faces a Detroit pass defense that’s near the bottom of the league and especially vulnerable to backs and slot targets after the catch — a good match for Kenneth Gainwell and the Steelers’ heavy-personnel looks. With Watt and Herbig both likely out, Pittsburgh’s defense loses its premier finisher and a valuable rotational rusher, making it harder to close out long Lions drives and more likely we see sustained scoring from both offenses in a game that carries roughly 57 percent leverage on playoff odds for Pittsburgh and a near do-or-die swing for Detroit. I expect each side to push into the mid-20s with Detroit more likely in the high 20s or low 30s, enough to justify Over 52 at -110 with a solid but not elite B-grade edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 12:02.

Against the spread, I’m taking the Steelers +7 at -110 with a B- grade, anticipating that Rodgers and a disciplined, veteran roster can keep this within one score even if Detroit controls much of the flow. The Lions are rightful favorites and have been laying around a touchdown in the market, but their recent form — alternating wins and losses over the last month, with the defense repeatedly gashed through the air — makes covering a full 7 less comfortable, especially against a quarterback who punishes busted coverages and thrives in late-game, high-leverage drives. Pittsburgh’s two-game winning streak, including a physical road win at Baltimore and a controlled performance vs. Miami, shows Mike Tomlin’s group can handle playoff-type environments, and even with Watt and Herbig sidelined, the Steelers’ back-seven cohesion plus a ball-control offense can shorten the game and reduce possessions. Detroit’s beat-up offensive line (with multiple starters on the injury report) and thin secondary also open doors for a backdoor cover if the Lions jump ahead early but struggle to close out a veteran offense, and Pittsburgh’s desperation to protect its AFC North lead while the Lions fight to stay alive in the NFC race should keep intensity high for four quarters. I like Detroit to win outright, but Steelers +7 at -110 gets the nod with a B- grade as a classic “Lions win, Steelers cover” script. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 12:02.