Penguins vs Stars

Sidney Crosby just hung a hat trick on Dallas in this building last April, but coming in tonight the Stars ride a nine-game points streak (7-0-2) while the Penguins have quietly taken three of their last four and banked points in 12 of 14 on the road, making this more of a heavyweight clash than the -195 moneyline suggests. With Pittsburgh still missing useful depth like Rickard Rakell, Filip Hallander, Justin Brazeau and Noel Acciari, and Dallas down Tyler Seguin plus multiple defensemen over the past week, both benches are leaning heavily on their top-end cores rather than rolling four fully intact lines. Historically, Crosby has tormented the Stars with better than a point per game, and Jason Robertson has piled up assists against Pittsburgh, but with both teams still well short of the 41-game mark, this is more about establishing tone than jockeying for playoff seeding. On balance, Dallas’ current form, elite home special teams and Jake Oettinger’s run of strong starts justify laying the favorite price, though Pittsburgh’s road consistency and Crosby’s history here keep it from being a slam dunk; I’d grade Stars -195 as a B+ play, solid but not spectacular value if you’re comfortable backing the superior depth and home-ice edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:32am

The Stars’ 7-0-2 surge has been built as much on structure as scoring, with Oettinger allowing one goal or fewer in most of his recent starts, while Pittsburgh’s mini-run has featured tight checking and just four goals allowed over its last two outings despite facing quality offenses. Seguin’s ACL injury and Dallas’ blue-line attrition, plus Pittsburgh’s own absences up front, trim some secondary scoring from both lineups and tilt this toward a matchup where coaches trust their top six but shorten the bench and lean on defensive pairs. Crosby’s long track record of production against Dallas and Robertson’s steady output versus Pittsburgh are real threats to any under, yet those stars will see heavy matchup attention and top penalty-kill units in what still feels like an early-season measuring-stick game rather than a wide-open track meet. With both teams ranking among the better defensive clubs and thriving on special-teams discipline, a total of 6 with the under priced at 100 offers enough cushion that a 3-2 or 4-1 type result cashes, so I prefer Under 6 at even money and grade it an A- given the combination of likelihood and price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:32am

Dallas has routinely won by multiple goals during this nine-game points streak, but Pittsburgh has been one of the league’s toughest road outs, taking points in 12 of 14 away from home and rarely getting run out of the building even against top-tier opponents. The Stars’ injury list — Seguin and Lian Bichsel on long-term injured reserve and other recent blue-line absences — plus Pittsburgh’s missing middle-six forwards on the other side, nudges this matchup toward shorter benches, more conservative tactics and fewer true mismatch shifts that usually drive blowout margins. Crosby’s history of monster nights against the Stars, including that four-point game here in April, combined with Robertson’s strong numbers versus the Penguins, underscores how much high-end talent is on both sides, but with the season still under 30 games old for each team the likely script is a close, playoff-style game rather than another Dallas rout. I expect the Stars to be more often than not on the right side of the result, yet the way these teams suppress chances and the way Pittsburgh hangs around on the road make Penguins +1.5 at -160 a reasonable B-grade puckline play for bettors willing to pay some juice for a high probability of a one-goal game. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:32am