Penguins vs Blackhawks

With Pittsburgh coming in on a multi-game winless skid that includes a brutal blown 5-1 third-period lead to San Jose and back-to-back extra-time losses, while Chicago has dropped recent games like a 4-0 home shutout to Detroit and is just hovering around .500 at United Center, the moneyline still leans toward the deeper and more structured Penguins at -170. Even with Evgeni Malkin and Blake Lizotte sidelined recently on injured reserve and role players like Filip Hallander out long term, Pittsburgh can still run Crosby between productive wingers such as Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust, backstopped by an Erik Karlsson–Kris Letang-led blue line and a power play that has surged into the league’s top tier. Chicago, meanwhile, is leaning heavily on Bedard and a mostly young forward core, missing middle-six support like Philipp Kurashev up front even as Connor Murphy’s return helps stabilize the right side of the defense, and that combination has shown cracks against better offensive teams. Historical matchup trends also tilt this toward Pittsburgh: Rust has been consistently dangerous against Chicago, Karlsson has piled up points versus the Blackhawks over his career, and the Penguins have taken points in most recent meetings with this franchise, including three multi-goal wins in their last handful of clashes even if Chicago snuck a 3-1 decision at home last spring. Factoring in Pittsburgh’s special-teams edge, higher overall ceiling, and recent territorial control in this series against the risk introduced by their overtime record and current skid, backing the Penguins moneyline at -170 earns a Grade of B+ for a solid combination of win probability and moderate but not elite value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/12/2025 09:35

The total at 6 looks vulnerable to an offensive spike given how the Penguins have been playing high-event hockey, combining a top-end power play and Crosby’s relentless road production with a tendency to bleed chances, as that 6-5 overtime collapse against San Jose underscored, while Chicago’s mix of Bedard-driven skill and defensive inconsistency has produced some lopsided-score nights in both directions. Pittsburgh’s man-advantage has been converting at one of the best rates in the league and now gets a crack at a Blackhawks penalty kill that has struggled during their recent slide, especially in home losses where breakdowns in front of their goaltenders have been frequent, and even with Malkin out the Penguins still roll two units loaded with shooters. On the other side, a Chicago attack keyed by Bedard, Frank Nazar and Jason Dickinson should generate its share of looks against a Penguins team that has rotated through goalies this season, has coughed up multi-goal leads, and is missing some forward depth that normally helps insulate the back end, particularly in transition defense. Add in the fact that recent Penguins–Blackhawks meetings have skewed toward multi-goal margins and spurts of offense — from Pittsburgh’s 5-0 blowout at PPG Paints Arena to Chicago’s 3-1 win at United Center when they capitalized on defensive lapses — and the recipe points toward a game where both teams can get to two or three goals, leaving the Over 6 at 100 as a reasonable B-grade wager that trades a modest edge for the upside of a track-meet-style contest. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/12/2025 09:35

Although Pittsburgh is the rightful favorite, the matchup profile nudges me toward Chicago on the puckline at +1.5, with the heavy juice balanced by the realistic chance this stays within a goal given how the Penguins have been living on the edge. Their recent pattern of overtime and shootout losses, plus that blown four-goal cushion against San Jose, signals a team that can dominate long stretches but still lets opponents hang around, and heading into a hostile United Center after the break is a spot where a young, fast Blackhawks group led by Bedard can ride energy from the crowd to keep things tight. Chicago’s recent results have been uneven — big losses like the shutout to Detroit offset by competitive efforts and a road split in Los Angeles — yet the return of steady minute-eater Connor Murphy and the continued emergence of Spencer Knight in goal give them just enough defensive backbone to avoid frequent multi-goal home blowouts, especially against a Penguins forward group missing Malkin and some depth pieces and leaning heavily on Crosby’s line and the top power-play unit for offense. Given the series history that includes both a comfortable Pittsburgh rout and a 3-1 Chicago win, plus the likelihood that special teams and goaltending variance could swing a one-goal result either way, taking Blackhawks +1.5 at -190 earns a cautious B-: the cover probability is fairly high, but the expensive price tag and risk of a Penguins statement game keep this from grading higher. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/12/2025 09:35