Penguins vs Flames

The Penguins have points in four straight and wins in four of their last five road games, while the Flames have been treading water at 6-5-1 over their last 12 and 3-2 in their last five, mixing in an overtime loss to New Jersey. ([pensburgh.com](https://www.pensburgh.com/news/71838/pens-points-kraken-slayers?utm_source=openai)) Both ESPN roster pages confirm that the usual cores are intact up front — Crosby and Evgeni Malkin for Pittsburgh, Nazem Kadri, Mikael Backlund and Yegor Sharangovich for Calgary — but the blue lines are where injuries bite hardest, with Erik Karlsson on injured reserve and Kris Letang day-to-day for the Pens, and Blake Coleman, John Beecher, Samuel Honzek and Jake Bean sidelined for a Flames team that also recently moved Rasmus Andersson. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/roster/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-penguins)) Head-to-head, Pittsburgh has quietly gone 16-8-4 against Calgary since 2007 and taken points in 11 of the last 17 meetings, yet the recent mini-series tilt has leaned Flames, with Calgary winning three of the last five and Kadri posting two goals and an assist in last year’s set, plus a 2-1 home win on January 10 powered by Logan Cooley stealing one despite Pittsburgh’s xG edge. ([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/penguins/news/game-preview-01-21-26-at-calgary-flames?utm_source=openai)) With both teams past the 41-game mark, the stakes are clear: the Penguins sit third in the Metro and need these Western road points to pad their playoff cushion, while the Flames, 7th in the Pacific, are clinging to the fringe of the wild-card chase and desperate not to bleed home ice. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/schedule/_/name/pit?utm_source=openai)) Pittsburgh’s 3.23 goals per game, 28% power play and 83.1% penalty kill contrast sharply with Calgary’s 2.55 goals per game and 14.9% power play, and over a large sample that kind of special-teams and finishing gap tends to matter more than a short-term goalie heater, even with Cooley and Dustin Wolf giving the Flames their best path to an upset. ([picksandparlays.net](https://picksandparlays.net/free-picks/nhl/pittsburgh-penguins-vs-calgary-flames-picks-and-prediction-for-wednesday-january-21-2026?utm_source=openai)) Calgary’s strong 13-7-3 home mark and a 4-0-1 record against Metro teams this season keep this from being a slam dunk, but with Pittsburgh also a solid 12-7-4 on the road and driving better underlying numbers, I’m willing to lay the modest -120 price on the more complete roster and give this moneyline an A- grade for a blend of solid win probability and decent value. ([picksandparlays.net](https://picksandparlays.net/free-picks/nhl/pittsburgh-penguins-vs-calgary-flames-picks-and-prediction-for-wednesday-january-21-2026?utm_source=openai)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:43

Current form and matchup context point toward a tighter script than Pittsburgh’s raw offensive average suggests, with the Penguins scoring 3.23 goals per game but also allowing just 2.92 while suppressing shots, and the Flames stuck at 2.55 goals per game with a bottom-tier power play that struggles to convert their shot volume. ([picksandparlays.net](https://picksandparlays.net/free-picks/nhl/pittsburgh-penguins-vs-calgary-flames-picks-and-prediction-for-wednesday-january-21-2026?utm_source=openai)) The last meeting finished 2-1 for Calgary with Cooley stealing it, and that result fits how the Flames have been winning lately at the Saddledome: relying on a goalie tandem that has posted a .951 save percentage and 1.33 GAA in Cooley’s recent run, while Wolf, though colder in 2026, still gives them a second high-variance option. ([pensburgh.com](https://www.pensburgh.com/penguins-lines-game-time-watch/71913/game-preview-pittsburgh-penguins-calgary-flames-1-21-26)) Pittsburgh’s forward depth and elite 28% power play do threaten any under, but they remain only 21st in 5v5 actual goals despite ranking top-10 in expected goals, a sign of finishing inconsistency that can show up on the road against a structured, heavy Calgary team. ([pensburgh.com](https://www.pensburgh.com/penguins-lines-game-time-watch/71913/game-preview-pittsburgh-penguins-calgary-flames-1-21-26)) With both sides over 41 games and in playoff-positioning mode, game states tend to tighten in third periods rather than blow open, especially for a Flames club that doesn’t have the firepower to trade chances and a Penguins group that has been successful recently by managing risk and leaning on special teams. ([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/penguins/news/game-preview-01-21-26-at-calgary-flames?utm_source=openai)) At a total of 6 with the under priced at -125, I project a high likelihood of landing in the 4–5 goal range, with a push working in our favor at exactly six, making Under 6 a solid but juice-heavy position that earns a B grade rather than elite value status. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:43

Given how these teams are playing and how their recent meetings have unfolded, grabbing the Flames at +1.5 on the puckline leans into the expectation of another one-goal game more than a blowout, even while I favor Pittsburgh outright. ([welcome.bet](https://welcome.bet/calgary-flames-vs-pittsburgh-penguins-predictions-jan-21-2026/?utm_source=openai)) Calgary’s 13-7-3 home record, strong recent run against Metropolitan opponents (9-0-2 in their last 11 and 4-0-1 this season), and outstanding goaltending run from Cooley — who already stole a 2-1 win over the Pens on January 10 — all support the idea that their best path is grinding low-event, tight-score hockey rather than opening things up. ([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/flames/news/5-things-flames-penguins-10-01-26?utm_source=openai)) On the Pittsburgh side, the road form is impressive at 12-7-4 with a four-game points streak, but the defense is materially thinned without Erik Karlsson and with Kris Letang less than 100%, a combination that can turn dominant territorial stretches into narrow wins instead of comfortable covers. ([pensburgh.com](https://www.pensburgh.com/news/71838/pens-points-kraken-slayers?utm_source=openai)) Offensively, the Flames’ 2.55 goals per game and weak power play cap their ceiling, yet their size, physicality, and ability to drag games into the trenches — plus Nazem Kadri’s history of producing against Pittsburgh and the recent 3–2 edge in the last five head-to-heads — all tilt the probability tree toward a competitive loss more often than a multi-goal defeat. ([picksandparlays.net](https://picksandparlays.net/free-picks/nhl/pittsburgh-penguins-vs-calgary-flames-picks-and-prediction-for-wednesday-january-21-2026?utm_source=openai)) At a steep -250, the price blunts much of the value even if Calgary covers this number well north of 70% of the time, so Flames +1.5 earns only a C+ grade: a fairly safe but expensive way to back the home side’s resilience. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:43