Steelers vs Ravens

The Ravens come in having won four of their last five while the Steelers have dropped three of their last five, and that recent form, combined with Baltimore’s strong home edge at M&T Bank Stadium, tilts the moneyline toward the favorite even with Lamar Jackson nursing an ankle issue and missing Thursday’s practice. Aaron Rodgers has stabilized Pittsburgh’s passing game, but the Steelers’ offense has still been inconsistent on the road and faces a Baltimore defense that, while less dominant up front this year, remains disciplined in coverage and has historically made the margin for error razor-thin in this rivalry. Jackson has lit up Pittsburgh recently when healthy, including six touchdown passes across two wins last season with Derrick Henry leaning on this defense on the ground, and even a somewhat-hobbled version supported by that run game should be enough to grind out a home win in a game with major AFC North and wild-card implications. With Baltimore priced at -270 and Pittsburgh at 210, I see the Ravens’ moneyline as fairly rated but not a bargain, appropriate for straight bets or as a parlay anchor rather than a heavy single-game exposure, hence the B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:14am

Books are hanging a total of 42.5 with implied team scores in the low-20s for Baltimore and high-teens for Pittsburgh, but the way these teams are built — and beat up — still screams grind-it-out slugfest that leans Under. The Ravens’ offense has morphed into a run-heavy unit centered on Derrick Henry while Jackson’s mobility and explosiveness have been dulled by lower-body issues, and now both Rashod Bateman and Devontez Walker are managing practice-limiting injuries, which reduces their downfield threat profile even more. On the other side, Rodgers and DK Metcalf headline a Steelers attack that has been methodical rather than explosive, and they now walk into a Ravens secondary keyed by Kyle Hamilton with Pittsburgh’s own defense, led by T.J. Watt and a physical front seven, still capable of forcing Baltimore into long, clock-chewing drives. Recent meetings and current market expectations point to a one-score, field-position game driven by AFC North playoff pressure rather than shootout tendencies, making Under 42.5 at -108 an attractive combination of matchup fit and price worthy of a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:14am

While I expect Baltimore to escape with the win, the spread tells a different story, and Pittsburgh catching 5.5 points is where the value sits in a rivalry that has seen 3 of the last 5 regular-season meetings decided by six or fewer and the Ravens holding just a modest scoring edge in that span. The Ravens may be 4-1 over their last five, but Jackson’s ankle setback and the downgraded practice status of key receivers introduce real volatility to an offense already grinding through injuries up front, whereas Rodgers is back to full practice and should have a mostly intact supporting cast with Watt and the rest of Pittsburgh’s primary playmakers trending toward availability. Market data shows Baltimore drawing the majority of money as a mid-range favorite at home, yet they’re only 2-3 against the spread over the last five while the Steelers’ defense has been good enough to keep games inside one score even when the offense sputters, especially in high-stakes AFC North spots like this that will heavily influence tiebreakers and playoff seeding. With that combination of Ravens injury risk, tight historical margins and playoff urgency, I’m grabbing Steelers +5.5 at -109 and grading it a B as a live underdog position that can cash even if Baltimore survives on the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:14am