76ers vs Mavericks

Philadelphia leans on Joel Embiid to build on an overtime win that snapped a three-game skid, while Dallas tries to halt a slide that’s seen them lose five of their last six and go winless on a recent California road trip. With Embiid listed as probable and only Kelly Oubre Jr. and Trendon Watford ruled out, the 76ers are relatively healthy compared to a Mavericks team missing Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, and Dante Exum, and managing Anthony Davis’ recent groin issues on top of a season-long -4.2 net rating. Embiid’s long-term dominance of this matchup (around 29 points and 10 boards per game vs Dallas) combines with Paul George’s strong career numbers against the Mavs to give Philly multiple half-court answers against a thin Dallas backcourt and shaky rebounding. I’m backing the 76ers moneyline at -127 and grading it a **B**: solid edge with decent value on the deeper, healthier side, but still a road favorite in a spot where Davis can swing outcomes if he’s close to full strength. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 10:42

With Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II out and Dallas reeling from that 1–5 stretch, the Mavericks’ offense has leaned heavily on an often-banged-up Anthony Davis and the rookie Cooper Flagg, which has not translated into efficient scoring or consistent spacing. On the other side, Philadelphia just stabilized after its three-game skid but still profiles as a team comfortable grinding through Embiid post-ups and George/Maxey pick-and-rolls rather than pushing extreme pace, especially with Oubre’s scoring off the wing unavailable and Embiid only “probable” from an injury-management standpoint. Historically, Embiid has torched Dallas in slower, half-court-heavy games, and Davis has put up strong individual lines against the 76ers, yet those performances tend to feature a lot of paint touches, free throws, and deliberate possessions rather than run-and-gun track meets. Given Dallas’ offensive inconsistency, their poor net rating, the Sixers’ willingness to play through their star big, and a fairly inflated 231 total, I like **Under 231 (-110)** and grade it **B+** for a strong combination of matchup angle and number value, with only late-game fouling and unexpected hot shooting as major concerns. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 10:42

Dallas enters this one on that rough 1–5 run and searching for direction, while Philadelphia rides the momentum of its skid-breaking overtime win and the three-headed shot creation of Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George. Even with Embiid merely probable and the wing rotation thinned by Oubre’s absence, the 76ers have a clearer offensive hierarchy and more two-way depth than a Mavericks squad missing Irving’s on-ball scoring, Lively’s rim protection and lob gravity, and Exum’s guard minutes, putting a heavy burden on Davis, Flagg, and streaky veterans like Klay Thompson and D’Angelo Russell. Embiid’s history of big nights against Dallas and George’s steady production versus the Mavs suggest Philly can repeatedly target mismatches inside and on the perimeter; meanwhile, Davis’ strong track record against the 76ers is tempered by his current health questions and the lack of a dependable secondary creator. I’ll lay the short number with **76ers -2 (-112)** and grade it **B-**: correlated with the moneyline edge but slightly riskier given road variance, Davis’ ceiling, and the possibility that Philly wins a tight one that lands right on the number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 10:42