Senators vs Golden Knights

Jack Eichel’s dominance against Ottawa, combined with Vegas’ home-ice edge and Ottawa’s injury situation, tilts this moneyline toward the Golden Knights despite their recent stumble against Utah ending a six-game point streak and leaving them 3-3-4 over their last 10. Ottawa is a respectable 5-4-2 on the road and 5-2-3 in its last 10, but this seven-game trip has already featured three straight one-goal grinders, and they’re likely without captain Brady Tkachuk plus still managing day-to-day issues for Thomas Chabot and Ridly Greig, which stretches their scoring depth and blue-line puck-moving behind Tim Stützle and Dylan Cozens. Vegas has historically owned this matchup (an overwhelming all-time record vs. Ottawa) and still drives play well at five-on-five with Eichel in MVP form and a deep top nine, while Ottawa’s underlying numbers include a shaky penalty kill and a slight negative goal differential despite that solid record. With Knights’ home mark at 5-3-3 and Ottawa leaning heavily on close games decided late, I project Vegas’ true win probability a bit higher than the implied number at -170, enough to justify a position on the favorite even with the juice, so I grade this moneyline bet an A- for a strong combination of likelihood and moderate but not massive monetary upside. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 10:01am

For the total, the recent form points slightly toward a tighter game than the market expects: over their last 10, Vegas is averaging about 2.8 goals for and 3.0 against while Ottawa sits near 2.6 for and 2.4 against, and both teams have leaned on strong goaltending stretches from Akira Schmid plus the Ullmark/Meriläinen tandem even when results wobble. Ottawa’s offense loses a major finishing and net-front presence without Tkachuk and also risks being less dynamic in transition if Chabot remains out or limited, while Vegas is still navigating life without Mark Stone and William Karlsson, which constrains their usual wave-after-wave attack even as Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev keep producing. Yes, the historical series between these clubs has featured offense, and Ottawa’s weak penalty kill plus Vegas’ dangerous power play are real threats to an under, but current roster health, both teams’ willingness to grind in the neutral zone, and the Senators’ trend toward low-event road results on this trip pull my projection closer to a 3-2 type scoreline than a track meet. At a flat 5.5 with the under sitting at 100, I see fair but not elite value and grade the under 5.5 a solid B: a reasonable edge with decent payoff but not enough certainty or plus price to push it higher. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 10:01am

Given how these teams are playing, the puckline value leans to Ottawa +1.5 as Vegas keeps stacking one-goal decisions: the Knights have already piled up seven overtime or shootout losses and come in 3-3-4 in their last 10, a profile that screams tight margins rather than routine multi-goal wins, while Ottawa’s last three on this trip have all been decided by a single goal (3-2, 3-2, 2-1). Even with Tkachuk out and Chabot banged up, the Senators are getting balanced scoring from Stützle, Michael Amadio and their middle six, plus competent goaltending that has held opponents to 3 or fewer goals in most recent outings, which is exactly the recipe to stay within a goal even if the Knights’ deeper roster, home ice, and Eichel’s outstanding career production versus Ottawa ultimately tilt the straight-up result toward Vegas. Vegas still owns the historical matchup and boasts better five-on-five shot and expected-goal shares, so I’m not eager to fade them outright, but that same profile combined with their reliance on close games makes laying -1.5 dangerous and taking the dog at +1.5 logical, even at a hefty -190. I grade Ottawa +1.5 a B+ on the puckline: expensive but high-likelihood insurance that should cash more often than the price implies, especially in a non-conference game where both sides are content to nurse a third-period lead. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 10:01am