Senators vs Maple Leafs

With Ottawa riding a five-game points streak and Toronto having just one win in its last six despite decent underlying play, the Senators at -120 on the moneyline feel slightly underpriced given their 10-7-2 road record versus a Leafs side that has bled late leads and just revamped its coaching staff. Ottawa’s current edge in special teams — a top-tier power play against Toronto’s last-ranked man advantage — combines with recent head-to-head form, including a regular-season sweep of the Leafs last year and a five-game winning streak in this rivalry, to tilt the matchup toward the visitors even with key depth losses like Lars Eller and Shane Pinto down the middle. Toronto’s blue line is still patchwork without Brandon Carlo and Dakota Mermis, and if Linus Ullmark or Leevi Meriläinen can give league-average goaltending behind a Senators group that has been driving play at five-on-five for most of December, Ottawa’s moneyline has enough edge to justify a B grade, acknowledging Toronto’s strong home record and elite finishers keep this from being higher. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 27/12/2025 09:26

The total sitting at 6 with Over -115 lines up with how these teams are playing: Ottawa is scoring over 3.2 goals per game while allowing just over 3.1 with a bottom-two penalty kill, and Toronto has been one of the league’s most frequent Over teams thanks to a potent top six, leaky defensive structure, and injuries thinning their blue line and goaltending depth. Recent Senators–Leafs clashes have regularly pushed into the 6–7 goal range, and Ottawa’s elite power play facing Toronto’s struggling PK, combined with the Leafs’ own high-end shooters finally waking up before the break, creates multiple paths to at least a 4–3 type result, especially with both clubs returning from the layoff and likely leaning on their stars in a rivalry spot. Given Ottawa’s December trend of higher-event games and Toronto’s combination of strong home scoring with defensive volatility, Over 6 at this price earns an A- grade for both likelihood and upside, with the push safety at exactly six goals slightly tempering it from a full A. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 27/12/2025 09:26

While Ottawa has had the better recent results and owns the moneyline edge, the rivalry context, Toronto’s strong 11-5-5 home record, and several close games between these teams over the past year make Maple Leafs +1.5 at -250 a reasonable way to back a tight Battle of Ontario without fading the Senators outright. Ottawa’s recent surge has still included one-goal battles — like the 3-2 overtime loss to Buffalo and multiple 3-2 and 4-3 type results this month — and the Leafs’ top forwards remain capable of matching the Senators’ attack, especially with Chris Tanev back stabilizing the defense even as depth pieces like Brandon Carlo, Dakota Mermis and Anthony Stolarz remain out. Given Ottawa’s current form and Toronto’s defensive injuries, a multi-goal Senators win is certainly live, which, along with the steep price on the puckline, keeps this at a B- rather than a higher grade, but the combination of home ice, offensive talent, and the rivalry’s tendency toward one-goal margins still make Leafs +1.5 a defensible safety play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 27/12/2025 09:26