Senators vs Canadiens

With Ottawa dropping two straight on the road and Montreal coming off a 7-2 pounding in Colorado, this matchup feels like a “who stabilizes first” spot where the healthier, deeper forward group gets the edge, and that points me to the Senators at -115. Ottawa has still taken 10 of the past 14 meetings in this rivalry dating back to 2022, driven by Drake Batherson’s consistent production against Montreal and strong two-way pivots like Tim Stutzle and Shane Pinto, while the Canadiens’ recent surge has leaned heavily on Cole Caufield’s hot finishing and Nick Suzuki’s play-driving. The injury sheet is brutal on the home side — Montreal is missing key regulars in Kirby Dach, Alex Newhook, Patrik Laine, and Kaiden Guhle, plus depth piece Jayden Struble, while Ottawa’s only major absence is Thomas Chabot on the back end, leaving the Sens’ top nine forwards essentially intact. Goaltending doesn’t create much separation (Linus Ullmark and Jakub Dobes/Sam Montembeault are all sitting north of 3.00 goals against), but Ottawa’s slightly better defensive underlying profile (fewer shots allowed per game) combined with its recent high-danger finishing and long-term head-to-head edge nudges this near pick’em toward the road side. I grade Senators -115 as a B: reasonably likely to cash with acceptable value at a short favorite price, suitable for a standard stake rather than an all-in position. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:23am

This total is all about two surging offenses colliding with badly stressed blue lines and penalty kills, making Over 6 at -115 my preferred angle in this game. Ottawa is averaging just over 3.0 goals per game while allowing more than 3.3, and Montreal is even more tilted toward offense at roughly 3.4 for and 3.5 against, with both clubs sitting in the bottom third of the league in goals allowed and sporting subpar penalty kills in the low-70s and mid-70s, respectively, against top-10 power plays on both sides. Recent form backs the scoreboard lighting up: the Habs’ last three games have finished 4-3, 4-1, and 7-2, while Ottawa just gave up six to Dallas after a run of one-goal, high-event contests. Head-to-head, these teams have repeatedly pushed past this number with results like 5-4, 6-3, 5-2, and this season’s 4-3 OT win for Montreal, and individual matchup trends (Caufield’s double-digit career goals vs Ottawa, Batherson and Stutzle’s steady scoring against Montreal) further support multi-goal nights from both top sixes. With shaky goaltending on both benches and injuries thinning Montreal’s defense, I grade Over 6 at -115 as a B+: a strong play with a good combination of likelihood and payout, acknowledging that a 3-2 grind would turn this into a frustrating miss. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:23am

For the puckline, the most interesting number is Ottawa -1.5 at 215, but it’s a higher-variance position that I’d only consider as a smaller, supplemental play. The case for the Sens covering the -1.5 leans on Montreal’s injury pile on defense and in the middle six, combined with Ottawa’s history of stretching leads in this matchup and its current offensive core being fully available (Stutzle, Batherson, Brady Tkachuk, and Shane Pinto all in the lineup). At the same time, recent meetings have often been tight — the Habs took the first clash this season 4-3 in OT and have shown they can trade punches through Suzuki–Caufield–Slafkovsky and an aggressive power play, even when down bodies. Given that both teams are coming off humbling multi-goal losses, and Montreal is at home with enough firepower to keep this within one in a lot of outcomes, I see the Sens puckline more as a long-tail upside ticket that pays nicely if Ottawa’s transition game and special teams tilt this into an empty-net scenario late. I grade Ottawa -1.5 at 215 as a C+: the price is attractive but the likelihood of a one-goal decision in either direction is high, so this should sit well behind the moneyline and total in your staking plan. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:23am