Senators vs Wild: Matinee Edge in St. Paul

The Wild’s two-game surge, capped by a 5-2 home win over Dallas that pushed them to 17-9-5, contrasts with a Senators group that only just halted a three-game slide and still owns a negative goal differential despite scoring over three goals per night. Minnesota is back home where its structure travels well, allowing 2.65 goals per game and leaning on Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt behind a deep forward core of Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek and Vladimir Tarasenko, all confirmed on the current ESPN roster. Ottawa’s blue line remains without Thomas Chabot on this road trip, forcing heavy minutes on Jake Sanderson and a thinner support cast just as the Wild debut Quinn Hughes, whose puck-moving should only help them get through the Senators’ forecheck and onto that vulnerable penalty kill. Historically, Kaprizov has carved up Ottawa with eight points in six games and a +6 rating, while Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk have produced against Minnesota but carry ugly plus-minus numbers in the matchup, underscoring how often the Wild tilt the ice in these meetings. With Ottawa sitting near the bottom of the Atlantic and Minnesota firmly in the Central mix, home-ice, form, injuries, and star-driven matchup history all lean slightly but clearly toward the Wild at a modest price, making Minnesota -120 a solid but not elite value play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:25. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%9326_Minnesota_Wild_season?utm_source=openai))

Even with Minnesota’s defensive discipline, the ingredients here still lean toward six or more goals: Ottawa comes in averaging 3.10 goals for and 3.30 against, playing in a ton of up-tempo games, while Minnesota sits at 2.81 goals for and has just added Hughes to a power play that already features Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek and Boldy. The key mismatch is special teams — Ottawa’s top-tier power play north of 25 percent meets a Wild penalty kill around 79 percent, but the Senators’ own PK is stuck near the bottom of the league under 71 percent, a scary place against Kaprizov’s one-timer and Minnesota’s net-front layers. Recent form supports offense on both sides: the Wild just hung five on Dallas and have three or more in three of their last four, while Ottawa lit up Columbus for six after a stretch of high-shot, low-finish frustration at home. Even with Gustavsson likely starting and Ottawa missing Chabot, the Senators’ tendency to trade chances, their poor penalty kill and Minnesota’s top-end scoring history in this matchup (Kaprizov’s eight points in six games vs Ottawa, Stützle and Tkachuk regularly on the board versus the Wild) point more toward a 4-2 or 4-3 type script than a grindy 3-2 finish, making Over 5.5 at -115 a reasonably attractive play but not a slam dunk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:25. ([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/wild/news/game-preview-vs-ottawa-senators-121325?utm_source=openai))

Given Minnesota’s edge straight up but relatively modest goal-scoring profile, the value on the puckline tilts slightly toward Ottawa +1.5 despite the heavy -260 price, especially with the Senators already 14-12-4 and having collected plenty of points in one-goal games this season. The Wild’s offense is driven by a concentrated top six and a power play that can break games open, but their overall scoring rate around 2.8 goals per game and preference for structured, lower-event hockey at home means blowouts are less common than simple wins, particularly with multiple regulars on their injury report and Jonas Brodin still a question mark. Ottawa’s issues are more about defensive breakdowns and a bottom-tier penalty kill than an inability to skate with teams at five-on-five, and even without Chabot they’ve shown they can keep pace on the road — as the 5-2 win in Montreal and 6-3 win in Columbus on this recent trip underline — with Stützle, Tkachuk and Drake Batherson all capable of answering Minnesota’s pushes. Factor in that Minnesota has already needed tight margins to rack up points this year and that Ottawa’s offensive ceiling plus a full, ESPN-verified forward group make a late backdoor cover very live, and swallowing the juice with Senators +1.5 feels like a slightly better risk-reward than chasing a Wild multi-goal win, though the premium price keeps it in B- territory. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:25. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%9326_Minnesota_Wild_season?utm_source=openai))