Senators vs Oilers

Connor McDavid has eaten against Ottawa for years, and with Edmonton back at Rogers Place chasing crucial Pacific Division points, I like the Oilers to justify their -125 moneyline. Edmonton’s elite power play and home-ice last change should matter against a Senators team whose penalty kill has lagged all season and now has to contain McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard with depth defender Mattias Janmark already out and new addition Connor Murphy still settling in. Ottawa has tightened up since the break and is coming off a solid win in Toronto, but the Sens are just one game removed from an OT loss to Detroit and have been streaky on this long stretch of games, while Edmonton’s recent road-heavy skid masks the fact that their five-on-five metrics and shot share at home remain strong. With both teams in a tight playoff race around the mid-60s in points, I expect heavy minutes for each side’s top six, and Edmonton’s higher-end finishing plus the historical McDavid dominance in this matchup tilt me toward the home side despite the recent wobble. The price isn’t a gift given Edmonton’s defensive volatility, but the combination of matchup edges, special teams gap and home ice makes this a B+ grade play on the Oilers moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/03/2026 10:01

With two offenses both north of three goals per game and defenses living in the low-3.00s against, the number at 6.5 looks high but justified, and I’m still leaning Over at -133. Edmonton’s combination of McDavid, Draisaitl and Hyman on the NHL’s most dangerous power play against a bottom-tier Ottawa penalty kill is a recipe for multiple man-advantage goals, especially with the Senators’ blue line missing depth pieces and asking a lot of Artem Zub, Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot in tough matchups. Ottawa can absolutely trade chances here too: Tim Stutzle is in form, Brady Tkachuk and Dylan Cozens give them real bite in the top six, and the Senators’ own power play has enough talent to punish an Oilers penalty kill that’s been leaky all year. The teams have already played track-meet style games this season and McDavid’s career production against Ottawa suggests Edmonton is likely to do its part to push this into a 4–3 or 5–3 type of scoreline. The juice on the Over keeps this from elite value, and there’s always a path where Ullmark or Ingram steal it with a big night, so I’ll grade Over 6.5 as a solid but not slam-dunk B given the offensive environment and special-teams mismatch. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/03/2026 10:01

Given Edmonton’s tendency to either blow teams out when their top line gets rolling or leak chances in waves when chasing, the higher-variance puckline at -1.5 for 180 has some appeal in this spot. When the Oilers win, they often do it by multiple goals thanks to their explosive power play, their comfort pressing for offense late, and their willingness to pull away further with empty-netters once they’re already ahead, and Ottawa’s road defensive numbers plus a shaky penalty kill increase the odds of that script. The Senators’ recent form is respectable and their center depth with Stutzle, Cozens and Shane Pinto means they can hang around at five-on-five, but with Nikolas Matinpalo day-to-day and David Perron still out, there’s a little less insulation if Edmonton starts tilting the ice and forcing long shifts in the Ottawa zone. In a game with real wild-card implications for both conferences, I expect D.J. Smith to push aggressively if Ottawa trails, which actually increases late-game variance and the chance of a second Oilers goal into an empty net. Because the Senators are good enough to keep this to a one-goal margin a fair amount of the time, this isn’t as strong as the moneyline, but the plus return on a multi-goal Edmonton win earns a speculative B- grade on the Oilers -1.5 puckline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/03/2026 10:01