Senators vs Red Wings

Brady Tkachuk rolls into Detroit fresh off his 200th NHL goal and a four-point night at Madison Square Garden, but with Ottawa coming in on a one-game skid after a 6-5 home loss to Montreal and playing the second half of a back-to-back, I’m siding with the Red Wings on the moneyline at -138. Detroit has quietly taken three of its last four, including a comfortable 4-2 home win over San Jose, and already handled Ottawa 5-3 in their January 5 meeting when Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, and James van Riemsdyk drove the offense, underscoring the Wings’ scoring depth. The Senators’ roster is back to looking dangerous up front with Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Dylan Cozens all active, but their crease remains unsettled with Linus Ullmark only just returning to practice from a personal leave and James Reimer brought in as stopgap insurance, while Detroit’s core (Larkin, Raymond, DeBrincat, Kane, Seider) is intact and playing in front of a home crowd for a division-leading team protecting its Atlantic Division pole position. With Ottawa still chasing a wild-card spot and having already logged the travel after last night’s game, I see Detroit’s fresher legs, deeper top-nine, and home-ice edge justifying them as rightful favorites; I grade this moneyline as a B, reflecting solid win probability but only moderate monetary value at this price compared with more aggressive options. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/01/2026 09:27

With both teams leaning into offense and carrying recent scorelines that have routinely pushed into the 7+ range, I like this matchup to clear 6.5 at -110. Detroit’s last four have featured outputs of 4, 4, 0, and 4 goals of their own, and they’ve already hung five on Ottawa this month; Ottawa, meanwhile, has scored 2, 2, 8, and 5 in its last four, highlighted by that 8-4 explosion over the Rangers once Tkachuk rejoined a forward group that includes Stutzle, Cozens, Drake Batherson, Claude Giroux, and Fabian Zetterlund. Historical matchup trends tilt offensive as well: the Sens went 3-0-1 against Detroit in 2024-25 and often did damage on the power play, while Stutzle has piled up strong career production against the Wings, suggesting both sides have personnel comfortable exploiting the other’s defensive structure. Add in Ottawa’s still-uncertain goaltending situation with Ullmark only just working back from his leave and Reimer/Meriläinen covering starts, plus Detroit’s offensive depth and first-place urgency to create some playoff breathing room, and the ingredients are there for a high-event track meet rather than a tight-checking grinder. I grade Over 6.5 at -110 as a B+ play: the scoring profile and matchup history support a high likelihood of cashing with fair juice, even if variance in goaltending form is always a lurking risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/01/2026 09:27

For those chasing a bigger payout, Detroit -1.5 at 170 is my puckline lean, though with more volatility and a lower grade than the moneyline or total. The Wings have already beaten Ottawa by multiple goals this season (5-3 on January 5) and come in as the Atlantic Division leaders with a deep forward group that can stretch games late, especially at home where they’ve recently stacked wins over quality and weaker opponents alike. Ottawa’s recent form is feisty but erratic defensively—allowing 3, 1, 4, and 6 goals in its last four—and the combination of back-to-back fatigue, an unsettled net due to Ullmark’s ongoing situation, and a top-heavy attack that can sag when the first two lines are bottled up creates real blowout potential if Detroit’s power play and top six (Larkin, DeBrincat, Raymond, Kane, JVR) get rolling. The Sens’ improved head-to-head record last season and their own offensive ceiling, particularly with Stutzle’s strong historical numbers versus Detroit, do raise the risk of a one-goal game or a late backdoor cover, so I grade this puckline as a B-: enticing plus-money value and a coherent path to a multi-goal home win, but more variance than I’m willing to assign top confidence to. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/01/2026 09:27