Senators vs Stars

The Stars’ current three-game win streak and five-game point streak (4-0-1), fueled by Robertson, Roope Hintz and Mikko Rantanen, makes Dallas a justified home favorite against a Senators side that has dropped two of its last three, including that third-period collapse in St. Louis. Dallas has been excellent overall at 16-5-4, with a strong 7-4-1 home mark, while Ottawa is a respectable but less imposing 6-5-2 on the road at 12-8-4, and this is the Sens’ sixth game of a taxing seven-game trip. With Tkachuk back from thumb surgery but Chabot still out, Ottawa’s top six looks dangerous yet their defense loses its best puck-mover and minute-eater, a key issue against a deep Dallas forward group that already solved Linus Ullmark once in a 3-2 OT comeback win in Ottawa earlier this month. Both teams are near full strength otherwise per the latest active rosters — core pieces like Robertson, Hintz, Rantanen, Benn and Jake Oettinger for Dallas, plus Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Jake Sanderson, Shane Pinto, Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson for Ottawa — but the Stars’ deeper blue line and home-ice edge tilt this matchup enough that I’m comfortable laying -140, even if Ottawa’s speed and power play keep the upset live. I’d grade this moneyline wager as an A-: strong likelihood in the low-60% range with solid, if not spectacular, value at the current price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/11/2025 09:29am

Despite Oettinger and Ullmark both capable of stealing games, recent form for these clubs points slightly toward goals: Dallas has put up 8 and 4 in its last two wins over Edmonton and Utah, while Ottawa has played four straight one-goal games on this trip that all landed on 6 or 7 total goals (4-3 Vegas, 4-3 St. Louis, plus earlier 3-2 and 4-3 finals), and their season-long goal differential sits at a perfectly even 78 for and 78 against. Dallas comes in at 87 goals for and 70 against, and the Stars’ top unit of Robertson–Hintz–Rantanen has already shown they can break down Ottawa’s structure in that 3-2 OT win, which came when the Senators were healthier on the blue line; with Chabot still out and the Sens leaning on depth defenders late in a road trip, their ability to suppress elite shooters for 60 minutes is questionable. Tkachuk’s return adds net-front chaos and another shooter to an Ottawa power play that already features Stutzle, Batherson and Sanderson, and with both teams’ recent games trending toward multi-goal swings and blown leads, a 3-3 or 4-2 type script feels more likely than another tight 2-1 grind. I’m siding with Over 5.5 at -130 and grading it a B+: the juice is a bit rich, but the offensive ceiling on both sides and recent scoring patterns make six or more goals a slightly better-than-fair outcome. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/11/2025 09:29am

Given how often these teams live in one-goal territory, I prefer taking the cushion with Ottawa at +1.5 rather than laying the puckline with Dallas: the Senators are 3-2 so far on this seven-game trip, and all five have been decided by a single goal, while the Stars’ recent wins over Ottawa and Utah were both by exactly one, including that 3-2 OT comeback in Kanata and a 4-3 rally at home Friday. Ottawa’s top six is now whole again with Tkachuk back, and with Stutzle, Pinto, Batherson and Giroux driving offense plus Sanderson pushing play from the back end, they have enough scoring to trade chances with Dallas even if Chabot’s absence leaves their defense thinner than ideal. The Stars still project as the likelier outright winner thanks to their deeper forward corps and home-ice advantage, but their tendency to ease off with a lead and Ottawa’s knack this year for staying in games — even in losses like the 4-3 defeat in St. Louis where they led in the second — makes a multi-goal blowout less attractive to bet into at current prices. I’ll take Senators +1.5 (-220) and grade it a B: the true edge is modest because of the heavy juice, but the probability of another tight, one-goal finish between these rosters is high enough to justify the tax if you’re comfortable paying it. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/11/2025 09:29am