Senators vs Avalanche

Colorado has ripped off a 17-0-2 home record and, even coming in off two straight road losses, they still sit atop the Central at 31-4-7, while Ottawa has dropped three of its last five and fallen to 20-17-5, clinging to the bottom of the Atlantic and very much in the Eastern wild-card grind. With Linus Ullmark sidelined and Lassi Merilainen’s numbers lagging behind Scott Wedgewood’s strong 2.20 GAA and .917 save percentage, the goaltending edge tilts heavily toward Colorado on a night where Ball Arena’s altitude and the Senators’ travel from Utah amplify that gap. The Avalanche have historically handled Ottawa, including last March’s 5-1 road rout keyed by multi-point nights from MacKinnon and Cale Makar, and their 4.11 goals per game all-time in this matchup underlines how their speed and transition game stress the Senators’ blue line. Even with key injuries to Gabriel Landeskog and Devon Toews, Colorado’s depth and elite top end (MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Makar) make them the clear side on the moneyline, though a -275 price keeps this closer to an A- than a pure A in terms of value, best used as a parlay anchor rather than a heavy straight play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 08/01/2026 09:56

The total at 6.5 is shaded toward offense, but Colorado’s profile at home — allowing just 2.21 goals per game behind Wedgewood — combined with Ottawa’s recent offensive wobble on a 2-3 stretch suggests a real path to a tighter scoreline than the number implies. The Senators arrive at altitude on the second leg of a difficult run that has included a 3-1 loss at Utah and a leaky 5-3 home defeat to Detroit, and they’re forced to lean on Merilainen with Ullmark out and Lars Eller on IR thinning their center depth, both of which can hurt their puck-retention and breakout efficiency. While the Avalanche have historically filled the net against Ottawa, including last season’s 5-1 and earlier 5-4 wins, the current version of this matchup features an Avs team that can smother with a disciplined defensive structure, strong special teams (85.0% PK), and shorter bench usage at home, especially with Devon Toews out forcing Jared Bednar to ride his top defenders heavier in a way that often slows games down. That mix of Ottawa fatigue, goaltending disparity, and Colorado’s ability to control pace leans me slightly to the Under 6.5 at -125, but the juice and the Avs’ explosive ceiling cap this as a B-grade edge rather than something higher. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 08/01/2026 09:56

Given Colorado’s perfect 17-0-2 home mark and the fact that many of those wins have come by multi-goal margins, the Avalanche -1.5 at -110 is an appealing way to leverage their dominance compared with the expensive moneyline, especially against a Senators team that has been outscored 12-8 over its last three and is missing its starting goalie. Ottawa’s recent stretch, with Ullmark out until mid-January and depth center Lars Eller shelved, forces Tim Stutzle and Dylan Cozens into heavy minutes down the middle against a relentless MacKinnon-led attack that historically has carved up the Senators, as seen in last March’s 5-1 Colorado win and a long-term head-to-head series that heavily favors the Avs in both wins and goal differential. Even with injuries to Gabriel Landeskog, Devon Toews, Mackenzie Blackwood, and a day-to-day tag on Joel Kiviranta, Colorado’s blend of elite top-six firepower, strong defensive metrics, and a massive special-teams edge, plus the situational factor of Ottawa playing at altitude after a demanding recent schedule, all point toward an outcome where the Avs are more likely to win by multiple goals than not; at effectively even money, that combination of probability and payout earns this puckline a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 08/01/2026 09:56