Thunder vs Jazz

Oklahoma City, winners of 14 straight and boasting a +15.6 point differential while holding opponents to just 107.1 points per game, still projects as the better side of the moneyline even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Alex Caruso all sidelined on the perimeter. Utah comes in on a one-game skid and just 4-6 over its last 10, scoring 118.3 per night but bleeding 125.6 with Walker Kessler lost for the season and Georges Niang also out, which leaves Lauri Markkanen to shoulder a massive load against Chet Holmgren and a deep, well-drilled Thunder defense. Even though Gilgeous-Alexander torched the Jazz for 54 in their matchup last season and OKC already blew Utah out 144-112 in Salt Lake City when healthy, the current injury attrition and steep price tag mean the Thunder moneyline at -480 is a strong favorite with limited return, so I’ll grade this play a B for high likelihood but only moderate monetary value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:51am

Utah’s up-tempo offense and leaky defense helped produce a 144-112 scoreline in the first Thunder–Jazz meeting this season, but Oklahoma City’s 14-game win streak has been driven as much by an elite defense (107.1 opponent PPG, best in the league) and a roughly league-average pace as by scoring fireworks, and tonight they’re without Gilgeous-Alexander plus multiple floor-spacing guards. With OKC’s 122.7 points per game likely to dip when more offense has to flow through Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren in the half court, and Utah entering at 8-14 with a 4-6 skid where their 118.3-point attack has often been undermined by inconsistent shooting, the combination of Thunder length, Jazz reliance on Markkanen’s isolation and reduced creation on the OKC side points toward a total that falls short of this inflated 238.5 number. I’ll side with Under 238.5 at -110, grading it a B because the defensive and injury angles are favorable but Utah’s fast pace and poor resistance always leave the back door open for late scoring spikes. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:51am

Lauri Markkanen gives Utah a legitimate headliner, and while the Jazz are just 8-14 with a one-game losing streak and a -7.3 point differential, catching +10.5 at home feels generous against a Thunder group on a 14-game heater that will be missing Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Caruso and several rotation bigs after already leaning heavy minutes on its core. That earlier 144-112 OKC rout in Salt Lake City came with the full MVP version of Shai (who hung 54 on Utah last season) and a mostly intact defense, whereas tonight’s version has to rely far more on Williams, Holmgren and supporting guards to both generate offense and contain Markkanen’s 28-point scoring average along with Jusuf Nurkic’s size, even though the Jazz are down Walker Kessler and Niang. Given how often shorthanded road favorites fail to clear double-digit numbers, Utah +10.5 at -115 earns a B+ from me as a spot where the market seems to have priced in the Thunder’s record and streak more than their current health, offering a bit of extra value if this turns into a closer, grindier game than the first meeting. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:51am