Thunder vs Timberwolves

Oklahoma City hits Minneapolis with an eight-game road win streak and a 9-1 run over its last 10, while Minnesota has stabilized at 7-3 in that span but remains less dominant overall. With the Wolves missing Mike Conley (Achilles) and still managing Anthony Edwards’ foot issue, their late-game creation and ball security are more fragile than the Thunder’s rotation, which is largely intact outside of depth pieces like Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber plus a couple of day-to-day frontcourt knocks. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has repeatedly sliced this matchup—dropping 40 in last month’s 113-105 win and 37 in a 130-123 road victory here last season—leveraging his downhill game and pick-and-roll chemistry with Chet Holmgren against Rudy Gobert’s drop coverage. Given Oklahoma City’s elite two-way profile and Minnesota’s backcourt injury concerns, I’m backing the Thunder moneyline at -350 with a Grade: A-, accepting the steep price for a high win probability but modest monetary value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 09:58 ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810240))

Anthony Edwards and the Wolves’ offense have been humming during a 7-3 stretch, averaging just under 120 points per game, while the Thunder enter on a 9-1 tear with a blistering attack around 123 points a night and 50% shooting, making this a clash of two top-tier offenses rather than the grind-it-out series of past years. Conley’s absence may trim some structure but tends to funnel more usage and shots to Edwards, Julius Randle and Naz Reid, and Oklahoma City’s minor frontcourt injuries nudge them toward more five-out, pace-friendly units that favor threes and early-clock attacks. Recent head-to-heads have comfortably threatened this range—130-123 in this building, 131-128 in last season’s OT thriller, and a relatively lower 113-105 Cup game that still landed near the 220s—suggesting that when both stars are rolling, defenses bend. I’ll take Over 229.5 (-110) with a Grade: B, expecting both teams to push into at least the mid-110s again even with some variance from the arc. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 09:58 ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401810240/thunder-timberwolves?utm_source=openai))

Minnesota as a +8.5 home dog is appealing for a team that’s 9-4 at Target Center and 7-3 over its last 10, facing an Oklahoma City group that is scorching overall but has shown in its lone recent loss that cold shooting can quickly shrink margins. Without Conley, Chris Finch has leaned more on bigger lineups and dual-center looks with Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid around Randle, and if Edwards is active, that size and physicality can wear on the Thunder’s relatively light front line over 48 minutes, especially with some day-to-day frontcourt concerns on the OKC side. Even when Gilgeous-Alexander has gone off, these matchups have often stayed within striking distance for the Wolves—like February’s 130-123 home loss (seven-point margin) and the recent 113-105 Cup defeat—hinting that this series tends to play closer than a three-possession number suggests. I’ll grab Minnesota +8.5 (-110) with a Grade: B+, trusting their home metrics, frontcourt depth and star scoring to keep it tight even if the Thunder ultimately escape with the win. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 09:58 ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810240))