Thunder vs Warriors

Oklahoma City Thunder bring a 12-game winning streak and a 20-1 record into Chase Center against a Warriors team that’s just 11-10 and only recently stopped the bleeding with a home win over New Orleans, despite playing without Stephen Curry and leaning heavily on Jimmy Butler. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander torching the league at over 32 points per night on elite efficiency, Chet Holmgren providing high-level rim protection, and a league-best 122.2 points per game offense, OKC already smacked this Warriors group 126-102 in their first meeting and has been steamrolling the West for weeks. Golden State still has a strong 7-2 home mark, but with Curry, Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton all sidelined while Butler carries a big two-way load, their attack looks too thin to consistently solve an OKC defense that has survived its own absences (Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort and Isaiah Hartenstein all out) throughout this 12-game surge, so I’m willing to lay the steep -550 moneyline with the Thunder, grading it a B because the win probability is sky-high but the payout is modest for the risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:49am

Golden State’s offense without Stephen Curry has trended toward grindier, lower-scoring games — recent home outings against Houston and New Orleans finished 204 and 200 total points — and that profile, combined with a short-handed backcourt rotation, makes the Under more attractive even against Oklahoma City’s explosive attack. The Thunder arrive on a 12-game heater and are capable of pushing scores into the 230s on their own, but they’re also missing important perimeter pieces in Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso plus starting center Isaiah Hartenstein, which pushes more usage onto Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren while slightly reducing some of their transition chaos and defensive turnover creation. Given that the last matchup in Oklahoma City hit 228 in a blowout and that Golden State’s overall scoring margin is barely positive at 114.5 points for and 113.6 against per game, a Curry-less home side propped up by Butler, Draymond Green and Moses Moody feels more likely to drag this into a defensive-tilted contest than a full-on track meet, so I’m taking Under 222 at -113 with a B-grade due to the solid angle but real risk that OKC’s ceiling still pushes this over the number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:49am

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder have been winning not just often but big, posting a 20-1 mark with a W12 streak and a +20-plus average margin in several recent wins, including that 24-point demolition of the Warriors in Oklahoma City, and their offensive firepower travels against a Golden State group missing Curry and several frontcourt pieces. Even with Jimmy Butler playing at an All-Star level and the Warriors holding a respectable 7-2 home record, the combination of a thin ball-handling corps, Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton on the shelf, and a recently middle-of-the-pack defense facing the league’s most efficient scoring machine at 122.2 points per game is a brutal recipe to keep this within single digits for 48 minutes. Oklahoma City does have its own depth issues on the perimeter and up front (Caruso, Dort and Hartenstein all ruled out), but their size, pace and rim pressure through Holmgren, Jalen Williams and relentless SGA pick-and-rolls should eventually break a short-handed Warriors rotation that has already shown vulnerability to blowouts on this schedule, so I’m comfortable laying Thunder -12 at -109 with a B+ grade thanks to both a strong cover probability and fair price for such a lopsided matchup. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:49am