NY Rangers vs St. Louis Blues

Artemi Panarin leads the Rangers into St. Louis tonight with New York trying to halt a 1-4 skid over its last five, while the Blues have been just as uneven at 2-3 in that span despite a confidence-boosting 1-0 home win over Winnipeg last night. With both active rosters confirmed via ESPN, the injury report tilts this matchup: the Rangers are missing Adam Fox and depth center Adam Edstrom, but St. Louis is far more depleted up front with Nick Bjugstad, Dylan Holloway, Jordan Kyrou, Jimmy Snuggerud and Zach Dean all on injured reserve, stripping speed and finishing from an already average offense. Even without Fox, New York’s defensive structure has held up, ranking near the top third of the league at 2.71 goals against per game, while St. Louis bleeds chances and sits near the bottom with 3.46 goals against per game, a bad fit against Panarin’s playmaking and a Rangers power play that’s roughly on par with the Blues’ but backed by better five-on-five shot suppression. Key matchup history also leans slightly New York: Panarin has piled up 26 points in 24 career games versus St. Louis, Pavel Buchnevich has hurt his former team with seven points in eight games, and Igor Shesterkin has produced two strong recent outings against the Blues even if his overall stat line versus them is modest, while Jordan Binnington’s 4-3 record with a 2.89 GAA against the Rangers suggests competitive but not dominant performances. Add in schedule context—St. Louis on the second half of a back-to-back after a low-event, shot-suppressing win, likely rotating its goalies, while New York is rested and desperate to stop a slide that has them seventh in the Metro—and I have the Rangers closer to a 62% win probability than the roughly 58% implied by -140, creating enough edge and solid but not elite monetary value to justify a B+ confidence grade on the New York moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 09:47am

With the total set at 5.5, the recent form and personnel suggest a modest lean to the under, even against St. Louis’ leaky defense, which makes this a B-grade position rather than something stronger. The Rangers’ last five games have totaled just 5.0 goals per night and include two shutout losses in which their offense generated only one goal across the last two outings, while the Blues’ last five sit closer to 5.8 goals but are skewed by a pair of blowout losses; their most recent game was a tightly played 1-0 win over Winnipeg that showed they can grind down tempo when needed. The mandated injury variables matter here: New York loses some blue-line offense and breakout ability without Adam Fox, and St. Louis is missing multiple top-nine forwards, notably Kyrou and Holloway, which caps their rush game and top-end finishing despite a power play that grades out similarly to the Rangers’. Historically, this matchup has not been a track meet either—New York’s 3-2 win over the Blues in November and Shesterkin’s 4-0 shutout of St. Louis last season both landed comfortably under this number—and with the Blues on a back-to-back, their priority is likely to simplify in front of whichever goalie starts, especially given how thin they are up front. The main risk to an under is St. Louis’ season-long 3.46 goals against per game and New York’s tendency to give up odd-man rushes when chasing offense, but the combination of recent scoring slumps for the Rangers, significant Blues forward injuries, and a market already shading the under at -120 supports a projected scoreline in the 3-2 or 3-1 range often enough to warrant an under 5.5 position at a B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 09:47am

Given the context that pushes me to the Rangers on the moneyline, I still prefer the Blues at +1.5 (-210) on the puckline, earning a B grade thanks to a high probability of a one-goal game even if the price is steep. New York comes in having lost four of its last five and struggling to finish chances despite reasonably solid underlying defensive numbers, a profile that’s produced a string of tight, low-scoring contests where they rarely run opponents out of the building, while St. Louis—despite being 2-3 in its last five—has recently played New York to a 3-2 road loss and tends to keep games close at home unless their goaltending completely unravels. The injury ledger again looms large: the Blues’ forward group is thinned out, which caps their upside to blow the game open but also nudges their coaching staff toward a conservative, structure-first approach in front of Jordan Binnington or Joel Hofer, and Binnington’s 4-3 record with a sub-3.00 GAA against the Rangers supports the expectation of a tight margin rather than a multi-goal collapse. New York’s blue line, missing Fox, is still capable but less dynamic in transition, which reduces the odds of them repeatedly exploiting a tired Blues team in the second leg of a back-to-back, and Shesterkin’s history versus St. Louis includes both a recent 3-2 win and a prior 4-0 shutout—results that are friendly to Blues +1.5 backers even when the Rangers cash on the scoreboard. Because the combination of New York’s moneyline edge, St. Louis’ injury issues and the ever-present empty-net risk means the Rangers still cover the -1.5 often enough to make laying -210 unappealing as a standalone wager, this puckline sits in the “high floor, modest ceiling” bucket, appropriate for a B-grade, risk-managed play that can be paired with other legs or used as protection alongside a Rangers moneyline position. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/12/2025 09:47am