Rangers vs Senators

Artemi Panarin and the New York Rangers roll into Ottawa at 14-12-2 having won four of their last five, including statement victories over Boston, Carolina and Dallas, while the 13-9-4 Senators have been more uneven lately with three losses in their past five despite a get-right win in Montreal. With Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Igor Shesterkin all active on the current roster, and Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Shane Pinto and Jake Sanderson driving Ottawa’s attack, this matchup is loaded, but injuries tilt the blue lines: the Rangers are without Adam Fox (LTIR) and Jonathan Quick, plus depth center Adam Edstrom, while Ottawa is missing top defender Thomas Chabot, which hurts an already porous group. New York’s tighter defensive profile (2.61 goals against per game with solid special teams) contrasts with Ottawa’s high-event style (3.12 goals for and 3.31 against, bottom-of-the-league penalty kill), and historically Panarin and Zibanejad have combined for 54 points in 44 career games against the Senators, though Tkachuk has been just as dangerous the other way against the Rangers. With both teams sitting on 30 points and still well short of the 41-game threshold, this is more about early positioning than playoff desperation, and I’m willing to back the hotter team with the superior goaltender and special teams at a plus price. Pick: New York Rangers moneyline at +122, graded a B because the dog has genuine on-ice edges and a fair payout but must overcome the loss of Fox and Ottawa’s potent top six in a tough building. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:26am

Between Ottawa’s 3.12 goals scored and 3.31 allowed per game and New York’s quieter but still competent 2.64 goals for and 2.61 against, the baseline scoring environment already leans slightly above the 5.5 total, and several matchup details point toward offense continuing to break through. The Senators’ penalty kill is languishing near the bottom of the league around 68 percent, a serious liability against a Rangers power play around 20 percent that still features Panarin, Zibanejad and a deep set of puck-movers even without Fox, while Chabot’s absence further weakens Ottawa’s ability to exit cleanly and protect its net. Recent form supports a higher total as well: Ottawa’s last handful of games have featured scorelines like 6-1, 5-2 and 4-3, and New York has mixed in multi-goal efforts against quality opponents, with both teams’ most recent loss coming in lopsided fashion that exposed defensive gaps more than systemic shutdown ability. Add in the fact that Tkachuk and Stutzle have consistently produced against New York and that Panarin has historically torched Ottawa, and it’s easy to envision special-teams chances and breakdowns on both sides pushing this to at least six goals despite Shesterkin’s quality. Pick: Over 5.5 goals at -110, graded a B- because the offensive and special-teams indicators are strong but an elite goalie on one side and New York’s generally sound defensive metrics keep the risk of a lower-scoring 3-2 or 3-1 type game very real. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:26am

The moneyline says Ottawa is a modest home favorite, but the way these two teams have been playing suggests another tight contest, which makes taking the Rangers at +1.5 on the puckline (at -205) more attractive than laying -1.5 with the Senators at +170. New York’s recent run has featured mostly one- and two-goal games — including a 3-2 OT win over Dallas and a 4-2 road win in Carolina — and Ottawa’s last stretch has looked similar, with three of its past five decided by a single goal and only the 6-1 loss in Dallas really getting away from them. Shesterkin’s presence, combined with the Rangers’ top-four defensive metrics in goals against per game and respectable penalty kill, gives them a strong chance to keep this within one even without Fox, while Ottawa’s offensive punch and historically strong performances from Tkachuk and Stutzle versus New York mean a full Rangers moneyline upset isn’t necessary for this bet to cash. Because the price on +1.5 is expensive and offers limited upside even with a high probability of hitting in what profiles as a one-goal game more often than not, I grade Rangers +1.5 at -205 as a B-: a relatively safe but low-yield way to back New York’s structure and goaltending to keep things close against an explosive but defensively fragile Senators team. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:26am