Jets vs Saints

New Orleans comes in on a two-game win streak while the Jets have dropped three straight and just fired their defensive coordinator, underscoring how different these teams’ trajectories look despite similarly ugly records. With rookie Tyler Shough settling in as the Saints’ starter and facing a Jets defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in scoring and has produced almost no takeaways, New Orleans has a clear quarterback and defensive stability edge over New York’s undrafted rookie Brady Cook, who has flashed but also turned the ball over in limited action. The major injury question is Alvin Kamara (knee/ankle), whose status is uncertain after multiple DNPs; if he plays, his track record against the Jets — including a 120-yard, 1-TD rushing performance in their 2021 meeting — meaningfully raises the Saints’ offensive ceiling, but even without him, Chris Olave versus a beleaguered Jets secondary is a favorable matchup. Both teams are already eliminated from playoff contention, yet the Saints still have more continuity and home-field edge, so I project them to win this more often than the roughly 73% implied by -275, though the price demands a lighter stake, which keeps this at a B: solid win probability with modest monetary value given the heavy juice. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:50

With both teams long since out of the playoff race and focused on evaluating young quarterbacks, this sets up as a game where play-callers are more likely to lean into Shough and Cook than to turtle up, which raises the volatility — and scoring upside — relative to the raw season averages. The Saints’ offense has quietly ticked up over the last two weeks (44 total points against Tampa Bay and Carolina) while the Jets’ defense has cratered, allowing 82 points in its last two outings and ranking near the bottom of the league in both yards and points allowed, all while generating virtually no turnovers, which means more sustained drives and red-zone chances for New Orleans. On the other side, Breece Hall and a top-10 Jets rushing attack match up against a Saints defense that has been gashed on the ground over the full season, and Cook has shown at least enough competence to take advantage of favorable down-and-distance situations created by the run game. The risk to the Over is clear — both offenses have been inefficient overall and Kamara may remain out, which could cap New Orleans’ explosiveness — but in a controlled environment with two bad defenses and rookie mistakes likely to create short fields, I lean Over 40.5 at -110 with a B- grade given the reasonable edge but only average payoff on a standard vig number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:50

Even while I expect the Saints to take this outright, the spread feels a bit inflated given how close these profiles are: New Orleans has a -7.6 point differential while the Jets sit at -8.6, and the Saints’ conservative, low-explosive offense under Shough has rarely put teams away by margin. New York’s biggest edge is still Breece Hall and a run game that ranks top-10 in yardage against a Saints front that has struggled against the run and is now dealing with injuries to key front-seven and offensive-line pieces, which can tilt game scripts toward tighter, grindier contests. On defense, the Jets have been a mess, but a coordinator change to Chris Harris plus the Saints’ own offensive limitations — and Kamara’s iffy status — make it more likely this lands in the one-score range than in a New Orleans blowout, especially with both sides eliminated and prone to late-game variance. With +6 giving you protection against a full-touchdown loss and standard -110 juice, there’s enough value in backing the underdog to keep it close to warrant a B grade: not the safest ticket given the Jets’ volatility, but a solid combination of cover probability and payout compared to laying the points with an equally flawed favorite. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:50