Islanders vs Jets

The moneyline sets up as a classic form-versus-desperation spot, and with the Islanders riding a 3-0-1 run keyed by Sorokin’s resurgence and late-game composure while the Jets have only just stopped an 0-9-2 freefall with back-to-back home wins, I’m inclined to grab the plus price on New York at +115 despite the road back-to-back feel of a long trip. Even with Horvat (team goals leader) and Palmieri (top-six scoring) both out, the Isles have been generating enough by committee under Patrick Roy, and Sorokin’s career 2.38 GAA and .919 save percentage against Winnipeg underscores how often he has muted Jets shooters like Connor and Scheifele, who carry poor career plus/minus numbers versus New York. Winnipeg still has a clear edge in travel and home-ice comfort, but Connor Hellebuyck’s merely average .901 save percentage this year, combined with the lingering fragility of a team that went more than three weeks without a win, makes laying -138 feel expensive given these teams’ current trajectories and the Islanders’ superior position in the playoff race. I project this closer to a coin flip with a slight edge to New York’s structure and goaltending, which makes the dog side at plus money a solid but not slam-dunk value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:57

The total at 5.5 is tight, but the way these teams are playing leans me to the over at -110, even with Horvat and Palmieri missing for the Islanders. Through 45 games the Isles sit at roughly 5.8 combined goals per night, while Winnipeg is over six, and both clubs have trended higher-event lately with New York coming off a 9-0 demolition of New Jersey and a 4-3 road win in Minnesota, and the Jets snapping their skid via 5-1 and 4-3 victories at home. Winnipeg’s defensive metrics and penalty kill have sagged during the losing streak, and although Hellebuyck’s counting stats are still respectable, the team in front of him has allowed 137 goals in 44 games, which is a red flag against an Islanders power play that has looked more dangerous under Roy, even if it loses Horvat’s bumper threat. On the other side, a thinned-out Islanders forward group and Sorokin’s elite ceiling inject some under risk, but Connor and Scheifele remain a high-end duo, Josh Morrissey is driving offense from the blue line, and Winnipeg’s desperation for points should keep them pushing in the third period rather than sitting on a lead. I expect a 3-2 game turning on an empty-netter or overtime scenario more often than a true low-event slog, so Over 5.5 at a cheaper price than the under gets a modest value nod, but the combination of strong goaltending and key injuries keeps this no better than a B- confidence. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:57

With the Jets installed as -138 home favorites, the puckline gives us a chance to lean into the expectation of a tight game by backing the Islanders +1.5 at -225, effectively betting that Sorokin and New York’s defensive structure can at least keep this within a goal even if they don’t complete the upset. Winnipeg has only two regulation wins since mid-December and needed a soft schedule patch to finally halt its 11-game slide, while many of their recent results—even in the Presidents’ Trophy season—cluster around one-goal margins, which doesn’t pair cleanly with needing them to clear a -1.5 line. The Islanders, meanwhile, have been highly competitive on the road (11-7-3), just swept a tough back-to-back in Toronto and at Minnesota in extra time, and even without Horvat and Palmieri they can still roll three responsible lines in front of a goaltender who has already shut teams down in this building. Given the Jets’ current position on the playoff bubble, they’re more likely to shorten the bench and lock things down in the third than chase an unnecessary style-point win, which further favors a one-goal result either way and makes the expensive dog puckline a reasonable way to reduce variance relative to the moneyline. At this price the edge is more about probability than pure ROI, so I grade Islanders +1.5 as a B-level, stability-focused play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:57