Islanders vs Wild

Mathew Barzal leads a shorthanded Islanders group into St. Paul to face a Wild team that just capped a 4-1-2, seven-game road swing and returns home at 26-11-8 with a 13-4-5 mark in their own building, while New York arrives on a one-game skid after the shootout loss in Nashville that followed their 9-0 demolition of New Jersey. With Bo Horvat ruled out and Kyle Palmieri on injured reserve, the Islanders are missing two of their primary finishers and face a Minnesota lineup that, even if Joel Eriksson Ek remains day-to-day, still leans on Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy atop a deeper, more balanced forward group. The Wild already handled the Islanders 5-2 on Long Island in November behind Jesper Wallstedt, and their mix of heavier five-on-five offense, strong home results and the energy of finally skating at Grand Casino Arena again gives them a clear edge even against Ilya Sorokin’s elite goaltending. Both clubs sit second in their divisions past the 40-game mark, so tonight carries obvious playoff-positioning juice, but the Isles’ injuries down the middle and the wear of this extended road trip tilt things toward the rested home side. At a moneyline of -175 the market is charging a premium for Minnesota’s current surge, yet I still rate the Wild as the likelier winner with only modest value, so I’ll back Minnesota on the moneyline with a B+ grade that reflects a strong likelihood of cashing but limited price edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 09:58

This matchup sets up for offense despite both teams riding strong goaltending, with the Islanders sitting around three goals for and nearly the same against per game and the Wild north of three goals for per night, plus the earlier meeting between these clubs already produced seven total goals in Minnesota’s 5-2 win on Long Island. New York’s recent form includes that 9-0 eruption against the Devils followed immediately by a tight 2-1 shootout loss in Nashville, illustrating how volatile their scoring can be but also how dangerous the Barzal-driven top six remains even without Bo Horvat and Kyle Palmieri. Minnesota, meanwhile, has turned Grand Casino Arena into a tough building by rolling four lines; Kaprizov’s playmaking, Boldy’s finishing and secondary threats like Mats Zuccarello and Vladimir Tarasenko have fueled a midseason stretch where the Wild have regularly posted four or more. Travel and schedule spots also lean toward a faster, looser game: the Islanders are in the middle of a long road swing and could see their structure slip in front of Sorokin, while the Wild are finally back home after a demanding trip and should push pace to feed off the crowd. With 5.5 as the total and the Over juiced, the number reflects respect for both goalies but still looks a tick short given the offensive talent and prior head-to-head result, so I’ll take Over 5.5 at -125 with a B grade for a fair combination of likelihood and modest value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 09:58

Given Minnesota’s status as a deserving favorite, the more interesting angle is whether the Wild can clear the -1.5 puckline or if Sorokin and a defensively tightened Islanders group can keep this within a goal, and the recent profiles for both suggest a close game more often than not. The Wild’s November and early-December home heater featured plenty of wins but a good share of OT and shootout decisions, while the Isles’ 10-7-2 road record and Sorokin’s form—highlighted by his record-setting shutout versus New Jersey—have generally kept them from getting blown out even when undermanned. Losing Horvat and Palmieri certainly dents New York’s ability to trade chances with Kaprizov, Boldy and company, but it also tends to push Patrick Roy into a more conservative, goaltender-centric game plan that naturally favors one-goal results, and Minnesota’s own injury worries with Joel Eriksson Ek and Zach Bogosian cap how much they can lean on matchup dominance. With both teams entrenched in the playoff race and the Islanders needing every point on this trip, the incentive to lock things down late—especially if it’s a one-goal game—further supports taking a goal and a half. The Wild can absolutely win going away, as they did in the 5-2 meeting on Long Island, but I expect that to be the lower-frequency outcome, so I’ll grab Islanders +1.5 at -167 with a B- grade that balances a high probability of cashing against relatively steep juice. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 09:58