NY Islanders vs Edmonton Oilers

With active rosters confirmed on ESPN showing Edmonton’s full top-end core (McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Bouchard) intact and New York missing Bo Horvat and Kyle Palmieri, the Oilers’ moneyline edge at home is hard to ignore at -175. Recent form is comparable on the surface (both essentially 3-2 in their last five), but the Oilers’ underlying profile — 3.38 goals per game overall and 3.85 at Rogers Place — combined with Connor McDavid’s extended point heater and a revitalized power play gives them more offensive ceiling than an Islanders group leaning heavily on Ilya Sorokin and structure during this Canadian swing. The Isles have banked points in most of their recent outings, yet their five-on-five metrics and net-front defending have trended the wrong way, and they’re now down their most dangerous finisher in Horvat as they cross the season’s halfway mark in a tight Metropolitan playoff race. Edmonton, meanwhile, sits in the thick of the Pacific race with similar point totals but a cleaner path to driving play, and both head-to-head trends (Oilers winning four of the last six) and McDavid’s 22 points in 17 career games against New York suggest their stars usually find a way in this matchup. Laying -175 doesn’t offer massive value, but with home-ice scoring, healthier top six, and the Isles’ injury issues and travel spot all pointing the same direction, Oilers moneyline grades out as a B+ conviction play rather than an all-in hammer. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 15/01/2026 09:52

The total of 6 at -133 leans heavily into Edmonton’s offensive profile, and there’s enough support to side with the Over even at a juiced price. The Oilers are top-tier in goals scored per game and even better at home, where their attack regularly pushes into the four-goal range, while their own defensive numbers and goaltending volatility keep the door open for opponents to contribute; that’s important against an Islanders team whose recent results (7-2 vs Utah, 9-0 vs New Jersey, 5-4 at Winnipeg, 4-3 at Minnesota) have been far more high-event than their season-long averages suggest. New York’s injuries to Horvat and Palmieri shave some finishing talent from their top six, but they still roll out Barzal, Anders Lee, Anthony Duclair and an active blue line with Matthew Schaefer, and they’re now facing an Oilers power play operating above 30 percent against an Isles penalty kill being asked to bail out a leaky net-front at five-on-five. Historical meetings between these clubs have produced a mix of tight and open scores, yet current context — Oilers pressing to solidify their Pacific position, the Isles in a Metro dogfight past the 41-game mark, and both teams on short rest stretches — nudges this toward a pace where six goals is an achievable median with strong push protection. I price the Over 6 closer to the low 60s in percent terms given Edmonton’s home scoring and defensive looseness, which makes -133 reasonable but not a steal, so Over 6 earns a solid B grade rather than A territory. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 15/01/2026 09:52

For those chasing a bigger payout than the moneyline, the Oilers -1.5 at -138 is a correlated way to express the same thesis, but the risk profile and price push this into C+ territory. On the supportive side, Edmonton’s home wins tend to skew multi-goal because of their explosive first line, lethal power play, and a willingness to press for offense late (which creates empty-net opportunities), and New York arrives short two key veterans in Horvat and Palmieri while grinding through the middle of a long road trip with playoff-race pressure building around the halfway mark. However, Sorokin’s ability to steal games, the Islanders’ general comfort in one-goal environments, and their recent pattern of staying inside the number even when they lose all argue that a fair probability for an Oilers two-plus goal win is materially lower than what -138 demands, especially with Adam Henrique sidelined for Edmonton and their own defensive profile still allowing plenty of chances. The matchup-specific history is also mixed — yes, we’ve seen Edmonton win by margin against the Isles, but we’ve just as often seen tightly contested games where Draisaitl or Horvat decides it late — which makes this more of a leverage play for bettors already invested in Oilers narratives than a standalone edge. I’m comfortable listing Oilers -1.5 as the side if you want to ladder onto an Edmonton blowout script, yet relative to the moneyline and total it’s more volatile with thinner perceived value, so I keep the confidence at a C+ rather than pushing it higher. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 15/01/2026 09:52