Islanders vs Blackhawks

The Islanders arrive in Chicago off a 4-2 loss in Columbus that snapped a two-game win streak, while the Blackhawks have dropped seven of their last eight and nine of their last eleven despite briefly ending a six-game skid in Dallas, so the current trajectory clearly tilts toward New York. Recent roster and injury reports show the Isles still without long-term pieces like Kyle Palmieri (ACL) and Alexander Romanov (shoulder), with Ilya Sorokin just returning to practice from IR and David Rittich carrying the crease, but Chicago’s situation is worse, as Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar remain on injured reserve and the Hawks are 1-6-0 since Bedard went down, stripping most of their high-end scoring from an already thin lineup. ESPN’s active rosters confirm New York’s top-six of Drouin–Horvat–Heineman and Lee–Barzal–Holmstrom is intact, with Mathew Barzal available after only a fine for his slashing major, while Chicago leans heavily on Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen and depth centers like Jason Dickinson against a deeper, more structured Islanders group. Horvat has quietly been a true matchup edge here, with 22 points in 24 career games vs Chicago and a goal in each of his last four meetings with the Blackhawks, and Simon Holmstrom has scored in three of the last four games against them, giving New York multiple forwards with proven success in this exact matchup. With the Isles sitting second in the Metro and the Hawks mired near the bottom of the Central, motivation and overall quality both favor the road side; at -150, I’d price New York closer to a mid -170 favorite, so I’m grading this moneyline play an A- for a strong blend of win probability and reasonable juice. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/12/2025 09:30am

Totals-wise, I lean under 5.5 because Chicago’s attack is badly diminished while New York has been grinding out tighter, lower-event games on the back of improved goaltending and structure. With Bedard and Nazar both out, the Blackhawks have scored enough to steal one shootout win in Dallas but otherwise remain 1-6-0 since Bedard’s injury and have been held in check often, and their power play has cratered to 8.8% in December after a solid 19.4% overall, while their penalty kill sits fourth in the league at 84.0%, a profile that tends to drag totals down despite defensive warts at five-on-five. On the Islanders’ side, recent results like a 2-1 win over New Jersey, a 2-0 shutout of the Rangers and then a 4-2 loss in Columbus with Rittich starting both ends of a back-to-back show a team leaning on goaltending and a structured blue line more than track-meet hockey, especially with finishing talent thinned by injuries to Palmieri and Romanov and Sorokin’s status still only “possible” rather than certain. Factor in Chicago’s elite PK taking away some of New York’s power-play ceiling, plus the likelihood the Isles try to squeeze this game and get out of town rather than trade chances on the road against a desperate opponent, and the under 5.5 at 105 rates as a B+ play: solid value against a number shaded toward offense, but with some risk if Blackhawks goaltending has another rough night. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/12/2025 09:30am

For the puckline, I still side with the Islanders -1.5, but the heavy price and Chicago’s competent penalty kill keep this from grading higher than a B-. Chicago just lost 7-3 at home to Pittsburgh and has been routed multiple times during this ugly stretch, and with Bedard and Nazar sidelined they’ve shown little ability to generate sustained offense or push back when they fall behind, which is dangerous against an Isles team whose top six is fully intact and whose best matchup weapons — Horvat’s 22 career points and strong faceoff dominance vs the Hawks, plus Holmstrom’s three goals in his last four games against Chicago — have repeatedly burned this opponent. New York’s forward depth, as confirmed on the current ESPN roster and reinforced by the projected lines from the team’s own preview, is simply in a different tier than a Blackhawks group leaning on Bertuzzi, Teravainen, Donato and secondary young pieces, and if Rittich continues his recent solid play behind a defense that, even without Romanov, has stabilized with Pulock, Pelech and Mayfield, there’s a clear path to a multi-goal road win. Still, Chicago’s strong 84.0% penalty kill and home-ice urgency can keep some games tighter than expected, and laying -170 on a -1.5 road puckline is inherently volatile, so I see this as a moderate-edge, higher-variance position — worthy of a B- grade rather than something you build your card around. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/12/2025 09:30am