Islanders vs Flames

The Islanders come in at 26-16-5 with a W1 and steadier form than the 20-23-4 Flames, who are hovering at .500 over their last 10 and still digging out from a brutal 5-12-3 start despite a recent uptick at home. With Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri, Alexander Romanov and Semyon Varlamov all out, New York is missing serious muscle down the middle, on the wing and on the blue line, but their current active core of Barzal, Anthony Duclair and rising rookie Matthew Schaefer has still driven a top-three goals-against mark and a 12-8-3 road record, backed by Ilya Sorokin’s .915-type goaltending against Dustin Wolf’s sub-.900 line. Historically the matchup has tilted Calgary’s way (8-2 in the last 10 meetings), but Barzal has still produced seven points in nine games vs the Flames and Jonathan Huberdeau’s strong assist history against the Isles is now weighed down by Calgary’s 31st-ranked offense, which makes it harder for the home side to fully capitalize. With both teams past the 41-game mark, the Isles are in a real Metropolitan home-ice race while the Flames are clinging to long-shot wild-card hopes, and that urgency profile favors the deeper, more defensively sound road team in what projects as another low-event Sorokin special. At -118, the implied break-even is roughly 54%, and I have New York closer to 60% to win outright; that combination of edge and modest juice earns an Islanders moneyline play an A- grade for both likelihood and fair, if not massive, monetary value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:35 ([thescore.com](https://www.thescore.com/nhl/events/31871?utm_source=openai))

Both teams’ current streaks point to volatility on totals — the Islanders are 21-26 O/U but have seen five of their last seven go over, while the Flames sit 25-20-2 O/U with several recent home overs — yet the underlying profile still screams tight, under-leaning game at a 5.5 total. New York’s injury list (Horvat, Palmieri and Romanov in particular) removes a key finisher, a net-front power-play presence and an important transition defenseman, while Calgary is missing Blake Coleman’s two-way impact and several depth pieces, which trims both teams’ secondary scoring and should help the goalies. On the matchup side, Barzal has historically produced against the Flames and Huberdeau has been an assist machine against the Isles, but both clubs are bottom-third in goals per game and on the power play, and Calgary’s excellent penalty kill combined with New York’s conservative road structure often drags tempo down. With each team past 41 games and playing in the context of a playoff chase — the Isles protecting a top-three Metro slot and the Flames trying to stay within reach of a wild card — I expect both coaches to lean on risk-averse five-on-five hockey, which, coupled with Sorokin’s elite form and Wolf’s better numbers at home, nudges this toward a 3-2 type script more often than not. Under 5.5 at +104 carries real variance in a modern NHL with empty-net chaos, but I estimate the under hitting in the low-to-mid 50s percentage-wise versus an implied ~49%, enough for a modest edge and a B grade on both probability and plus-money return. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:35 ([thescore.com](https://www.thescore.com/nhl/events/31871?utm_source=openai))

Given the way these teams are trending, the puckline story starts with close-game tendencies: the Islanders own a strong 12-8-3 road record but often win by a single goal in low-scoring environments, while Calgary has been merely average overall yet quietly sturdy at 12-7-2 on home ice, making multi-goal separation harder to achieve for visiting favorites. The Isles’ cluster of injuries — notably Horvat down the middle and Romanov on the back end — reduces their ability to extend leads and play bully hockey late, and on the other side the Flames are without Blake Coleman and a couple of depth forwards but still lean on Nazem Kadri, Mikael Backlund and Matt Coronato to generate enough offense to stay within one. Historically, Calgary has dominated the head-to-head, including an overtime win in their most recent meeting, and Huberdeau’s assist-heavy track record vs New York plus Barzal’s production in this matchup both point toward tight, skill-driven games that often come down to a single bounce. With each club beyond 41 games and the Flames fighting to keep their season alive in front of a home crowd, you’re effectively betting on desperation, score effects, and empty-net risk working in your favor to protect a one-goal loss or better. Laying -225 on Calgary +1.5 isn’t cheap, but with a cover rate I expect north of 70% given the defensive profile, goaltending edge to Sorokin but home-ice push for Calgary, and the Isles’ heavy travel during this Western swing, the pick earns a B+ grade as a high-probability, lower-upside way to back a competitive Flames effort. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:35 ([vegasinsider.com](https://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/teams/flames/?utm_source=openai))