Islanders vs Flames

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Both teams’ current streaks point to volatility on totals — the Islanders are 21-26 O/U but have seen five of their last seven go over, while the Flames sit 25-20-2 O/U with several recent home overs — yet the underlying profile still screams tight, under-leaning game at a 5.5 total. New York’s injury list (Horvat, Palmieri and Romanov in particular) removes a key finisher, a net-front power-play presence and an important transition defenseman, while Calgary is missing Blake Coleman’s two-way impact and several depth pieces, which trims both teams’ secondary scoring and should help the goalies. On the matchup side, Barzal has historically produced against the Flames and Huberdeau has been an assist machine against the Isles, but both clubs are bottom-third in goals per game and on the power play, and Calgary’s excellent penalty kill combined with New York’s conservative road structure often drags tempo down. With each team past 41 games and playing in the context of a playoff chase — the Isles protecting a top-three Metro slot and the Flames trying to stay within reach of a wild card — I expect both coaches to lean on risk-averse five-on-five hockey, which, coupled with Sorokin’s elite form and Wolf’s better numbers at home, nudges this toward a 3-2 type script more often than not. Under 5.5 at +104 carries real variance in a modern NHL with empty-net chaos, but I estimate the under hitting in the low-to-mid 50s percentage-wise versus an implied ~49%, enough for a modest edge and a B grade on both probability and plus-money return. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:35 ([thescore.com](https://www.thescore.com/nhl/events/31871?utm_source=openai))

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