New York Islanders vs Buffalo Sabres

Tage Thompson and the Buffalo Sabres skate into this one on a four-game winning streak at home, while the New York Islanders arrive on the second half of a back-to-back having dropped two straight and leaning on backup David Rittich instead of Ilya Sorokin. With Bo Horvat still out and Alexander Romanov sidelined long term, the Islanders are missing a top scorer and a key minute-eating defender, which magnifies the impact of travel fatigue and their recent 1-5-2 stretch in Buffalo that has included multiple multi-goal losses. Buffalo, meanwhile, has Alex Lyon riding his own four-game run in net and a penalty kill that’s been among the league’s best, supporting a surging top of the lineup led by Thompson and Alex Tuch in what effectively functions as a four-point swing in the wild-card race, with the Isles seven points ahead but the Sabres holding games in hand. The price around 155 asks Buffalo to win this matchup a bit more than half the time; given current form, injury imbalance, and venue history, I slightly favor the Sabres moneyline but see it as more of a solid than a slam-dunk edge, hence a B-grade recommendation. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:29

Even with Horvat out of the Islanders lineup, this profiles as a game where pace and fatigue can push scoring above the total of 6, given that both teams are averaging a little over three goals for and three against per night and the Islanders have embraced a far more rush-heavy, high-event style under Patrick Roy. Buffalo’s top six is hot—Thompson rides a multi-game goal streak and Tuch has stacked points in recent outings—and they now return home to a building where they’ve hung crooked numbers on the Islanders in past seasons, facing a travel-weary Isles group that just conceded four to Vancouver and now turns to its second goalie in as many days. On the other side, Buffalo’s penalty kill is elite but the Islanders’ transition offense, driven by Mathew Barzal and rookie blueliner Matthew Schaefer, still creates enough rush chances to stress a Sabres defense that is missing Conor Timmins and has leaned heavily on shot-blocking during this run. With Lyon in form and Rittich steady, there is risk of a tighter contest, but the combination of recent offensive trends, defensive injuries, and the Isles’ back-to-back schedule spot keeps my projection closer to 6.4 total goals, making Over 6 at a juiced 120 a B-grade play that’s worth a look but not an overextended position. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:29

Given Buffalo’s status as a moderate home favorite and their recent history of decisive wins over the Islanders in this building, Sabres -1.5 at 158 is my lean on the puckline, but it earns only a B- because of the likelihood of a one-goal game in a playoff-tinged matchup. The Sabres’ current four-game heater has featured strong territorial play, special-teams dominance, and enough finishing from Thompson, Tuch, and company to generate multi-goal cushions, while the Islanders come in shorthanded (no Horvat, no Romanov) and potentially worn down in front of Rittich after a difficult night against Vancouver. Still, New York’s core of Barzal, Anders Lee and a deep goaltending group usually keeps them in games, and their overall profile this season—despite a poor 1-5-2 run in Buffalo—suggests a lot of one-goal decisions, which means you’re trading win probability for a nice plus price on the Sabres to cover. I’d reserve this puckline for smaller stakes correlated with a Buffalo moneyline or same-game portfolio rather than as a standalone anchor, as the value is more about the payout than the hit rate. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:29