New York Giants vs New England Patriots

The New England Patriots enter Monday night riding a nine-game win streak and holding the AFC’s top seed, while the New York Giants limp in on a six-game losing streak and already eliminated from playoff contention, making the heavy home favorite on the moneyline the logical side even at a steep price of -385 against the Giants’ +285. Drake Maye has been operating at an MVP-caliber level with elite efficiency and balance between passing and rushing, and he now draws a Giants defense that is both shorthanded in the front seven with Kayvon Thibodeaux out and managing a compromised Dexter Lawrence in the middle, which undercuts New York’s best path to an upset—collapsing the pocket and forcing Maye into mistakes. On the other side, Jaxson Dart returns from concussion protocol to lead a 2-10 offense that has been feisty but inconsistent, and a cold, below-freezing night outdoors at Gillette should favor the more physical, deeper roster that can lean on its run game and pass rush once it grabs a lead. With the Patriots 10-2 outright, surging into December and facing a Giants team in transition under an interim coach, the matchup, current form, and injury situation all tilt strongly toward New England simply finding a way to win, even if the price reduces the betting value enough to keep this at an A- rather than a full A. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/12/2025 09:30am

Given how these teams have been playing, the Under 46.5 at -111 leans into several converging factors: the Patriots’ defense has quietly become a top-tier unit, the Giants’ offense with Jaxson Dart just back from a concussion is likely to skew more conservative on designed runs and downfield aggression, and both sides have impactful injuries in the front seven that can actually lengthen drives without necessarily increasing explosiveness. New England’s games have averaged mid-40s scoring with a balanced, methodical attack rather than weekly shootouts, and on a cold night in Foxborough with temperatures dropping into the 20s, ball handling, kicking distance, and late-game tempo all tilt subtly toward fewer points, especially if the Patriots play from ahead and are content to bleed clock behind their ground game and short passing to Stefon Diggs and the tight ends. The Giants’ recent scoring bump has come mostly in catch-up scripts against softer defenses, and facing a locked-in Patriots front that can send heat without blitzing and exploit a Giants line still shuffling around an injured Dexter Lawrence-led defense on short fields, it’s more likely we see long, grinding possessions rather than repeated explosives on both sides. With New England still focused on protecting Maye and the No. 1 seed while New York has little to gain from putting Dart in constant harm’s way, an Under ticket relies on the Patriots controlling game script and the cold weather shaving just enough efficiency off both passing attacks to keep this under the mid-40s. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/12/2025 09:30am

Against the spread at -7 with odds of -114, New England is still the side I prefer, even acknowledging that the Giants have been more competitive ATS than their 2-10 record suggests, because the combination of a nine-game Patriots win streak, a six-game Giants slide, and the current injury picture favors a multi-score home win more often than not. Drake Maye has been carving up defenses with over 3,000 passing yards and strong rushing production, and he now faces a Giants defense missing its top edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and leaning on a clearly limited Dexter Lawrence, which is a bad recipe when trying to disrupt a rhythm passer behind a well-coached scheme. On offense, Jaxson Dart’s dual-threat ability is real, but coming off multiple concussion evaluations and playing in below-freezing temperatures in a loud road environment, it’s reasonable to expect the Giants to rein in his designed runs and risk-taking, making them more reliant on sustained drives from Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton rather than explosive plays, a tough ask against a Patriots defense that has lived in the top 10 in scoring and yards allowed. With New England still jockeying for playoff positioning and style points in prime time while the Giants are effectively playing out the string with an interim staff, the motivational edge, quarterback edge, and matchup in the trenches all lean Patriots covering a single touchdown at home often enough to justify a B+ grade on the favorite. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/12/2025 09:30am