Predators vs Red Wings

Filip Forsberg and the Predators limp into Detroit having dropped eight of their last nine, with several of those defeats by multi-goal margins, while the Red Wings are 13-9-1 overall and 8-4-1 at home, coming off a tight 4-3 loss to New Jersey that snapped a mini surge. With lineups confirmed via ESPN, Detroit’s forward depth (Larkin centering a top six that includes DeBrincat, Raymond and Kane) looks far healthier than Nashville’s, which is missing middle-six wingers Zachary L’Heureux and Cole Smith and continues to lean heavily on Forsberg, Stamkos, Marchessault and O’Reilly for offense. Even though Nashville has historically handled Detroit well and still rosters several Wings-killers — Stamkos (24 career goals vs Detroit), Marchessault (hat trick vs Detroit in 2024), Josi (28 points in 40 games) and Forsberg (22 points in 25 meetings) — the current form and goaltending gap are hard to ignore: Juuse Saros sits at 3.08 GAA and .889 save percentage on a team allowing 3.68 goals against per game, while Detroit gets steadier work from its Talbot/Gibson tandem behind a club that scores 2.91 per night and drives play better at 5-on-5. With the Wings trending around a true price closer to -180 in my numbers, laying -160 on the home moneyline carries a modest edge but not a windfall, particularly given Nashville’s top-end talent and recent addition of a healthy Roman Josi back into the mix; that combination of a solid probability edge but only okay payout puts this wager at a B+ — strong enough to fire, but not one to overextend the bankroll on. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:23am

The total of 5.5 looks a touch light for the way these teams are trending: Nashville is getting caved in defensively at 3.68 goals against per game and just surrendered eight to Florida after recent poundings by the Rangers, Penguins and Avalanche, while Detroit is averaging 2.91 goals for and plays a more aggressive, offensively tilted style at home than on the road. The Predators’ scoring has been inconsistent (roughly 2.3 goals per game), but their top six is stacked with finishers in Forsberg, Marchessault, Stamkos and Ryan O’Reilly, all of whom have strong historical numbers against the Wings, and Josi’s return adds a huge shot and puck-moving threat on the back end that should boost a mediocre power play. On the other side, the Red Wings’ key offensive pieces (Larkin, DeBrincat, Raymond, Kane, Compher) are healthy, and depth injuries to Elmer Soderblom and Shai Buium plus a recent bug for Simon Edvinsson affect them more in defensive depth and matchup flexibility than in high-end scoring, which matters when facing a leaky Nashville blue line and a Saros/Annunen tandem that has struggled badly in November. League-wide matchup data pegs these two combining to allow around 6.9 goals per game, about a goal and a half above this total, so even with a slightly juiced Over at -130, the projection leans to offense winning out more often than not; given the Predators’ volatility and Detroit’s occasional scoring lulls, I’d still only grade Over 5.5 at a B — good enough to justify the vig, but not quite in premium territory. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:23am

For the puckline, Detroit -1.5 at 158 is a higher-variance angle that leans into recent scoring patterns and Nashville’s tendency to unravel once they fall behind: the Predators’ last month includes multi-goal defeats of 8-3 (Florida), 6-3 (Rangers), 4-0 and 4-0 (Penguins in Sweden) and 3-0 (Colorado), reflecting both fragile goaltending and a thin middle six hurt further by injuries to Zachary L’Heureux and Cole Smith. Even with their strong historical production against Detroit, Nashville’s stars have been fighting uphill at 5-on-5, and Saros’ form plus a backup in Justus Annunen who owns a 4+ GAA and sub-.830 save percentage create real downside if the Wings’ attack gets rolling early. Detroit, meanwhile, has posted several recent wins by two or more — including home victories over Chicago and Seattle in November — on the back of a deeper forward corps centered by Dylan Larkin and driven on the wings by DeBrincat, Raymond and Kane, and their relatively clean injury sheet (aside from depth pieces like Soderblom and rookie defender Buium, and Edvinsson’s day-to-day illness) means their top units and power play should be intact. My projection has Detroit winning this matchup by around 1.4 goals on average, which makes laying -1.5 at a plus-ish 158 price a reasonable way to squeeze extra value from a clear favorite, but the same Nashville top-end that scares on the moneyline — plus their strong track record vs Detroit in past seasons — pushes this down to a B-: a lean for bettors comfortable with volatility, not a core position. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:23am