Pelicans vs Spurs

San Antonio leans on Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox to extend a four-game home winning streak against a Pelicans team that has dropped 14 of its last 16 and slid to 11-36, sitting near the bottom of the West while the 31-14 Spurs push for top-two seeding. Wembanyama about 24.5 points and 10.9 boards per night and Fox 20+ points, strong playmaking already gutted New Orleans in a 126-119 home win in November, then helped edge them again in December, underscoring a clear talent gap when both are on the floor. The Pelicans arrive shorthanded in the backcourt with Dejounte Murray ruled out and Jose Alvarado questionable, while the Spurs’ only notable absence is Devin Vassell, leaving San Antonio’s core intact against a defense surrendering 122.1 points per game. New Orleans is just 7-36 straight up as an underdog and winless when priced in this underdog range, whereas San Antonio has converted the majority of its favorite spots, so the matchup and playoff urgency both point strongly to a Spurs win even if the -700 price offers poor standalone value, which keeps this recommendation at a C+ rather than an elite grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 25/01/2026 09:51

Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III give New Orleans real scoring juice, but when you factor in the Pelicans’ recent 3-7 skid, injuries to creators on both sides, and the underlying efficiency numbers, the 239.5 total looks a bit inflated for this matchup. San Antonio plays through a top-10 defense allowing about 112.6 points per game while scoring 117.9, and New Orleans averages 115.1 for and 122.1 against, which combines to roughly 233 points—several below this posted number even before adjusting for playoff-focused Spurs potentially shortening rotations and controlling tempo at home. While the first two meetings this season flew over 126-119 and a 135-132 shootout, that history is precisely why this total has been pushed toward the ceiling, and both teams are now missing important offensive pieces Dejounte Murray out, Alvarado questionable, Vassell sidelined that siphon off pace and shot creation. With San Antonio eyeing a deep playoff run rather than a track meet, and models generally projecting a combined score in the low 230s, the Under 239.5 at -110 grades out as a solid B-level play on value and probability. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 25/01/2026 09:51

Trey Murphy III’s history of lighting up San Antonio—including 41 points in November and 24 in last season’s February win—paired with Zion’s interior pressure gives New Orleans enough offensive ceiling to stay inside +12.5 even if the Spurs control the night. The Pelicans have been a disaster in the standings with 14 losses in their last 16, but they’re a respectable 25-22 against the number and 4-1 ATS when catching spreads of 12.5 or more, whereas San Antonio is just modestly above .500 ATS around 22-20-3 and only average at covering big numbers despite a four-game home winning streak. With Dejounte Murray out and Jose Alvarado banged up, New Orleans is forced to lean even harder on Murphy’s shooting and Zion’s downhill game, which can fuel late mini-runs, while the Spurs—missing Devin Vassell and possibly managing minutes for Wembanyama and Fox as they protect a strong playoff position—have shown a tendency to ease off in garbage time. Given the combination of New Orleans’ strong record as a big dog, San Antonio’s occasional lax closing stretches, and the double-digit cushion, Pelicans +12.5 -120 earns a B- grade as a reluctant but numerically sound way to fade an inflated spread in a game the Spurs should still win outright. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 25/01/2026 09:51