Pelicans vs Pacers

Zion Williamson and the Pelicans just handled this Pacers team 128-109 in New Orleans behind Zion’s 29 points, and even with New Orleans now on the road (3-15 away) against a Pacers group that’s a mediocre 7-16 at home, the matchup still leans toward Zion’s downhill pressure against Indiana’s thin rim protection. With Tyrese Haliburton out for the year, Bennedict Mathurin ruled out tonight and Obi Toppin still sidelined, Indiana’s offense leans heavily on Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard, whereas New Orleans, despite missing Herbert Jones, Jose Alvarado and still waiting on Dejounte Murray, can roll out more on-ball creation between Williamson, Trey Murphy III and Jordan Poole. The Pelicans come in on a small upswing after snapping their skid against Brooklyn, while the Pacers just had a three-game win streak broken by Toronto, and both teams are buried in 15th place in their conferences with little playoff hope, which tends to favor the side with the single best star in a coin-flip environment. At +125, I grade Pelicans moneyline a B-: the edge isn’t massive given New Orleans’ awful road record, but the plus-money price is attractive enough to back Zion to steal one in Indy. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 09:37

Pascal Siakam’s Pacers have quietly shifted into more grind-it-out games without Haliburton, posting a modest 109.5 offensive rating on the season against a poor 117-ish defensive mark, while the Pelicans sit at a slightly better 113-ish offensive rating but an even leakier defense around 120, combining for underlying efficiency that points closer to the low 230s than the nearly 239 being dealt. Their only meeting this season landed at 237 points (128-109 Pelicans) even with Bennedict Mathurin available and New Orleans healthier in the backcourt, and Indiana’s recent home stretch — holding Charlotte, Miami and Boston to just over 100 points per night during their three-game win streak — suggests Rick Carlisle is leaning into half-court possessions to compensate for his depleted scoring punch. With both teams effectively out of the playoff chase and managing heavy minutes on short rotations due to injuries (Mathurin, Haliburton, Toppin, Jackson on one side; Jones, Alvarado, Murray on the other), fatigue should also drag pace late. I grade Under 238.5 a B: there’s still volatility because neither defense is good, but the number has been pushed high enough relative to current personnel to shade under. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 09:37

Trey Murphy III’s recent scoring burst — multiple 30+ outings including 34 in their latest win over Brooklyn — gives New Orleans a second high-usage weapon behind Zion to keep this within one or two possessions, which is critical with a +3.5 cushion against an Indiana side that’s only 7-16 at home and heavily dependent on Siakam’s shot creation with Mathurin and Haliburton unavailable. The Pelicans have been more competitive since James Borrego took over, including that December rout of the Pacers where their depth (Derik Queen, Saddiq Bey, Poole and Murphy) overwhelmed Indiana’s thin frontcourt, and even though Herb Jones is out tonight, the Pacers’ own frontcourt injuries (Toppin, Jackson) mean they’re still undersized and foul-prone against Zion’s drives. Given both teams are essentially playing for draft position from 15th in their conferences, motivation and variance are real concerns, but catching more than a possession with the side that has the best player and the cleaner offensive hierarchy makes Pelicans +3.5 a B-grade play: solid value in what profiles as a tight, late-game whistle fest. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 09:37