Pelicans vs Warriors

Jimmy Butler and a battle-tested Warriors core still look like the right side on the moneyline at home, even with Stephen Curry ruled out for roughly a week by a right quad contusion. Golden State sits at 10-10 but has been far better at Chase Center and now faces a Pelicans group that’s just 3-16 overall, riding a three-game road skid and a brutal 1-14 mark against Western Conference opponents. New Orleans is also banged up on the perimeter, with Herbert Jones and Dejounte Murray sidelined and Jordan Poole gimpy, which leaves a heavier load on Zion Williamson despite his strong career numbers versus the Warriors. Between the Warriors’ top-10 three-point defense, their league-leading three-point volume, and the Pelicans’ bottom-tier defensive efficiency, Golden State should grind this out often enough to justify the steep price, though the limited payout keeps this at a solid but not elite B-grade play rather than an A-tier hammer. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:46am

Zion Williamson and the Pelicans offense have been stuck around 111.5 points per game on ugly shooting splits, and with Curry out of the lineup this shapes up more like a grind than a track meet, so I lean Under 225.5 at -110. New Orleans ranks bottom-five in scoring and efficiency while allowing 122.5 per night, but their games have been inflated partly by poor defense rather than blazing pace, and Golden State’s offense drops a tier without Curry’s on-ball gravity. The Warriors still average about 115 points with solid three-point efficiency, yet their recent turnover issues create extra empty trips, and Jimmy Butler-led units tend to slow things down into more half-court heavy possessions. Market previews have already ticked the total down into the low 220s at some shops, reflecting Curry’s absence and the Pelicans’ inconsistency, so at 225.5 we’re getting a small cushion that makes the Under a B-grade edge rather than a coin flip. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:46am

New Orleans’ recent habit of sneaking in under big numbers on the road makes Pelicans +8 at -110 the more attractive spread side, even if their 3-16 record screams stay-away. The Warriors are just 9-10-1 against the number and now have to cover a full three-possession spread without Curry, while the Pelicans are 10-9 ATS overall and a respectable 4-4 ATS away from home despite the injuries to Jones and Murray. Golden State already blew New Orleans out 124-106 earlier this month when they shot the lights out from deep, but that was with a healthier roster and another hot shooting night is far from guaranteed against a Pelicans team that at least competes on the glass and gets to the line. With Zion historically productive versus the Warriors and Golden State more focused on simply banking a win after a frustrating loss to Houston, I like the idea that the Pelicans lose respectably and sneak inside the +8, but the fragility of a 3-16 squad on a three-game road slide caps this as a B- value play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:46am