Saints vs Buccaneers

The Buccaneers moneyline at -455 is steep, but their profile as a 7-5 division leader fresh off snapping a three-game skid compares favorably to a 2-10 Saints team that has dropped four of its last five and scored just 182 points all season. Baker Mayfield has quietly delivered 2,600 passing yards with a 19-5 TD-INT line and a top-12 QBR despite a sprained non-throwing shoulder, while the defense already smothered Spencer Rattler and New Orleans 23-3 in the Superdome, holding him to 136 yards and forcing a pick-six. Tampa Bay gets this rematch at home with Bucky Irving back to balance the offense and Chris Godwin trending healthier, whereas New Orleans enters with key pieces like Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and right tackle Taliese Fuaga all carrying injury designations and an offense that leans heavily on a young quarterback still adapting to NFL defenses. With the Bucs clinging to a narrow NFC South lead and the Saints effectively out of the playoff race, motivation and matchup both favor Tampa Bay, but the low payout and persistent injury risk to Mayfield and the Bucs’ offensive line keep this from elite status, so I’m grading the moneyline play a B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:07am

The Under 41.5 at -109 looks attractive given how these teams have actually played: their first meeting totaled just 26 points, with Tampa Bay’s defense doing most of the scoring and the Saints failing to find the end zone, and New Orleans has only 182 points in 12 games (about 15 per contest) behind Spencer Rattler’s modest 8 passing touchdowns. Tampa’s games have featured more variance, but this defense just held the Saints to 275 yards and a single field goal in October and is coming off another strong effort in a 20-17 win over Arizona, while the offense remains banged up with Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving and multiple receivers all on the injury report, limiting explosive potential even in positive matchups. On the other side, the Saints’ ability to push this into a shootout depends heavily on the health of Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave behind an offensive line missing center Erik McCoy and potentially right tackle Taliese Fuaga, a tough ask on the road against a unit that’s pressured quarterbacks consistently and already dominated this matchup once. Add in late-season divisional familiarity and Tampa’s willingness to lean on defense and the ground game while protecting its NFC South lead, and a second straight grindy contest is more likely than a track meet, making Under 41.5 my preferred total play with a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:07am

Against the spread, laying -8.5 at -110 with Tampa Bay is riskier but still leans to the Bucs side after a 20-point road win in the first meeting and a clear disparity in current form, quarterback play, and injury situations. Baker Mayfield has been notably efficient at home this year, posting a passer rating over 100 in Tampa while directing an offense that just got Bucky Irving back as a legitimate lead back, whereas Spencer Rattler’s Saints have struggled to sustain drives, turning 68 percent completion into only 1,586 yards and 8 touchdowns as New Orleans continues to rank last in the NFC South at 2-10. The Saints travel with multiple core offensive players either out or questionable — including Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and key linemen — and they’ve already shown vulnerability to this Tampa front, allowing an interception return for a touchdown and repeatedly stalling in the red zone in October. Still, divisional rematches and Tampa’s own health issues (Mayfield’s shoulder, Tristan Wirfs’ oblique, a season-ending loss of Calijah Kancey and a still-thin receiver room while Mike Evans ramps back from IR) introduce enough volatility for a late backdoor cover, so while I expect the Buccaneers’ playoff urgency and defensive edge to win this by double digits more often than not, I’m keeping the spread play at a B- rather than a higher confidence grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:07am