Saints vs Dolphins

The moneyline leans heavily toward Miami for good reason: the Dolphins have won three straight and are 3-1 over their last four, while the Saints are reeling at 2-9 after scoring just three offensive points in their latest loss and now face the real possibility of being without Alvin Kamara plus a limited Chris Olave. Miami still has a clear quarterback edge with Tagovailoa over the rookie Shough, and even with Tyreek Hill sidelined, Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane give the home side far more explosive options than a New Orleans offense averaging only about 15 points per game and now traveling into warm, humid, potentially showery conditions at Hard Rock Stadium. Add in the Dolphins’ faint but real AFC wild-card hopes versus a Saints team effectively out of the playoff picture, and laying the juice on the Miami moneyline is justified even if Tua’s interception rate and Miami’s turnover issues lower the confidence from an A-range grade to a solid B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:38am

The total of 42 sits meaningfully above these teams’ combined scoring profile, with Miami averaging about 20.5 points per game and New Orleans stuck around 15, and the Saints now likely down Kamara and dealing with an ailing Olave on top of already anemic red-zone execution. Recent head-to-head history between these franchises has skewed defensive and low scoring, and this version of the matchup again features a capable Saints defense that allows modest yardage but too many points, against a Dolphins offense that has shifted toward a run- and Achane-centric approach since losing Hill and now managing Waddle through a foot issue. Factor in a forecast calling for warm, humid conditions with showers around kickoff in an outdoor stadium, plus Miami’s penchant for drive-killing turnovers despite Tua’s overall yardage, and a grindy game in the mid-30s is more in line with the current realities than a shootout, making the under 42 at slight juice worthy of a B+ confidence grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:38am

Against the spread, laying 5.5 with Miami is riskier than the moneyline but still appealing given New Orleans’ offensive collapse, the probability Kamara sits, and Shough’s turnover risk behind a line missing Taliese Fuaga at full health. The Saints have dropped five of six with multiple double-digit losses, including a 24-10 defeat to Atlanta where their only touchdown came from the defense, and now they face a Dolphins defense keyed by tackling machine Jordyn Brooks that has helped fuel wins over Buffalo and Washington while the offense rediscovered balance through Achane. Miami’s volatility—Tua’s league-leading interception totals, a banged-up offensive line, and conservative play-calling without Hill—does open the door to a backdoor cover if the Saints’ 12th-ranked yardage defense stiffens in the red zone, which is why this lands at a B- instead of higher, but with Miami’s recent margins and the Saints’ 15-points-per-game profile, the home favorite is still the side that projects to clear this number more often than not. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:38am