Devils vs Mammoth

Jack Hughes and the New Jersey Devils skate into Salt Lake City having steadied the ship with wins in two of their last three, including a 2-1 shootout victory in Vegas that followed a 4-1 home win over Anaheim to snap a five-game skid at Prudential Center. Utah, however, has quietly taken four of its last six and three of its last four (Kraken, Penguins, Red Wings) despite a brief stumble in Boston, and now sits 17-16-3 in a tightly packed Central race. The roster boxes are all checked: New Jersey’s core down the middle (Hughes, Nico Hischier, Cody Glass) and veteran tandem of Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen are intact, but the Devils remain without important right wings Timo Meier, Evgenii Dadonov and Arseny Gritsyuk, plus puck-mover Simon Nemec on the back end, thinning their depth scoring. Utah’s injury list is shorter but sharper at the top, with leading scorer Logan Cooley and middle-six pivot Alexander Kerfoot both on injured reserve, yet the Mammoth still roll out a dangerous top six led by Nick Schmaltz, Dylan Guenther and Clayton Keller; Keller in particular has 5 points in his last 5 games against the Devils’ franchise, while Hughes has 10 points in 7 career contests versus this Utah/Arizona core, and Guenther has chipped in 2 goals in 4 games against New Jersey. Utah’s team profile — 3.08 goals per game, 2.94 against, an elite penalty kill above 83% and one of the league’s lowest shots allowed per night — contrasts with a Devils group that scores less (2.82 GF/G), bleeds a bit more (3.06 GA/G) and carries a bottom-tier penalty kill, factors that matter in a tight 5‑on‑5 matchup at altitude. At roughly 57% implied probability for Utah -135, there isn’t huge value but I do see a modest edge for the home side’s defensive structure and goaltending (Karel Vejmelka/Vitek Vanecek) against a Devils attack missing several wings, so I like Mammoth on the moneyline at -135 for a B- grade: a slightly above-average edge but only fair payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 09:31

With Utah’s recent surge built more on structure than chaos and both teams’ goalie rooms close to full strength, the total of 5.5 sets up as a subtle lean toward a tighter script. The Mammoth have allowed two goals or fewer in four of their last six, riding one of the league’s stingiest shot-suppression profiles and a top-10 penalty kill, and Logan Cooley’s absence removes a primary transition threat and net-front finisher from a forward group that already tends to grind rather than trade rushes. New Jersey’s last five have been a mix of low-event wins (2-1 in Vegas, 4-1 vs Anaheim) and one ugly 8-4 loss to Tampa, but over the larger sample their offense has slipped under three goals per game while their power play efficiency is being undercut by a struggling penalty kill and a forward corps short several right wings. Historical matchup indicators between these cores also tilt defensive: Hughes has been more of a distributor than a volume scorer versus this franchise, Keller’s production versus New Jersey has come within methodical, low-shot environments, and Guenther’s 0.5 points per game against the Devils has not translated into track meets. Add in travel for New Jersey, a disciplined Utah team that takes relatively few penalties, and the likelihood that both coaches lean on their top pairings and veteran goalies in what is effectively a wild-card barometer game in December, and the Under 5.5 at -105 looks like the better combination of edge and price. I’d grade Under 5.5 a solid B: not a slam dunk, but backed by current form, injury context and both teams’ season-long goal and shot profiles. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 09:31

Given Utah’s defensive identity and New Jersey’s tendency to play one-goal grinders on the road, the puckline market — Devils +1.5 at -235, Mammoth -1.5 at +192 — tilts my preference strongly toward taking the cushion with the underdog. Utah’s last dozen games are littered with tight margins (4-3, 5-3, 5-4, 4-3, 4-2, 2-0, 4-1, 4-1), and even their recent 4-1 win in Detroit was a controlled, low-event effort rather than a run-and-gun blowout, which is consistent with their sub-26 shots allowed and sub-3.00 goals against per game. New Jersey has already shown on this trip that they can clamp down away from home — holding both Anaheim and Vegas to a single goal — and their spine of Markstrom/Allen behind a defense featuring Brenden Dillon, Jonas Siegenthaler and Luke Hughes is generally good at limiting second chances even when the team loses. While Utah’s top scorers (Schmaltz, Guenther, Keller) and strong home-ice record justify their status as moneyline favorites, Cooley’s injury caps their ceiling for multi-goal separation, and this Devils forward group still features enough top-end skill in Hughes, Hischier and Jesper Bratt to keep things within a goal the majority of the time — especially against a Mammoth power play that has been middle-of-the-pack. From a value standpoint, laying -235 on +1.5 isn’t cheap, but the combination of Utah’s profile as a close-game team, New Jersey’s recent form stabilizing after that five-game slide, and the historical ability of Hughes and company to generate offense against this franchise’s defensive group makes Devils +1.5 a B+ puckline play: high probability of cashing with a reasonable, if modest, return. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 09:31