Patriots vs Jets

Drake Maye has the Patriots rolling into Week 17 with a clinched playoff berth, a 12-3 record, and an undefeated 7-0 mark on the road, while the Jets stagger in at 3-12 on a three-game losing streak after being outscored 111-36 over their last three contests. New England has owned this rivalry for two decades, winning roughly four out of every five meetings in that span, and Maye has been efficient against the Jets specifically with a passer rating in the low 90s across his early career matchups. On the other side, the Jets are down their original starting quarterback Justin Fields (IR) and top wideout Garrett Wilson (IR), leaving undrafted rookie Brady Cook — who has just 1 touchdown against 6 interceptions this season — to face a Patriots defense that has quietly become one of the league’s stingier pass units. Both teams are dealing with injuries, but New England’s issues are more about receiver depth and a banged-up backfield, whereas New York’s problems cut into its offensive core and second level on defense, further tilting the talent and continuity scales toward the Patriots. With New England still jockeying with Buffalo for the AFC East crown and seeding, motivation should remain high, and in cold but manageable mid-30s, dry MetLife conditions, their structural advantages and coaching edge make an outright upset by the Jets extremely unlikely even if the price is steep. At -900, the Patriots moneyline profiles best as a parlay anchor rather than a standalone wager, but the win probability is high enough to justify a **Grade: B** on risk versus reward. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 11:44([patriots.com](https://www.patriots.com/news/game-notes-patriots-clinch-first-playoff-berth-since-2021))

The total hinges on whether the Jets can hold up their end of the scoring, and recent evidence says that’s unlikely: they’ve posted just 10, 20, and 6 points over their last three games, and now head into this one with Brady Cook, a struggling undrafted rookie, facing a playoff-caliber Patriots defense without Justin Fields or Garrett Wilson to raise the ceiling. New England’s own offense is surging with Maye closing in on 4,000 passing yards and TreVeyon Henderson providing explosive balance on the ground, but their receiver room (Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas) and Henderson himself are all on the injury report, which increases the odds of a leaner, run-heavy approach that chews clock rather than chasing style points. Historically this matchup has trended toward modest totals, with the first meeting this season landing in the low 40s and New York’s offense repeatedly bottled up even when Breece Hall has run effectively against the Patriots front. Add in cold, mid-30s temperatures at an outdoor MetLife with no forecasted precipitation and you get a setup that favors conservative game plans, shortened possessions, and a Patriots team that’s incentivized to get out healthy more than to chase a blowout scoreboard in a game they’re heavily favored to win. My projection clusters around something like 27-13, giving enough cushion below 42.5 to make the **Under 42.5 (-105)** an attractive play with a **Grade: A-** for a strong combination of likelihood and fair price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 11:44([rotowire.com](https://www.rotowire.com/football/player/brady-cook-18482?utm_source=openai))

Laying -13.5 on the road is never comfortable, but this matchup sets up for New England to control all four quarters: they’ve already beaten the Jets by multiple scores this season, remain a perfect 7-0 away from Foxborough, and now face a Jets team that has lost its last two by 28 and 23 points as the offense has cratered and the front seven has been thinned by injuries. The Patriots’ formula is particularly punishing for an overmatched opponent — Drake Maye has been efficient against this defense before, while TreVeyon Henderson already posted a multi-touchdown day on the Jets earlier in the year and should again find room behind an improving offensive line, especially with New York’s defense spending so much time on the field due to offensive ineptitude. New York’s best path to staying within the number is Breece Hall grinding out yards and the defense stealing a possession or two, but the combination of Cook’s turnover tendencies, a depleted receiving corps, and a Patriots team still pushing for the division means sustained offensive success is hard to forecast. I expect New England to lean on their run game and defense to build and protect a lead in the teens — something like 27-10 or 30-13 — which is just enough to justify laying the points even with backdoor risk in the fourth quarter, making **Patriots -13.5 (-110)** a modest value with a **Grade: B-**. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 11:44([patriots.com](https://www.patriots.com/news/game-notes-patriots-clinch-first-playoff-berth-since-2021))