Patriots vs Ravens

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens get this one at home with everything on the line, and that tilts the moneyline toward Baltimore despite New England’s 11-3 record and 9-1 surge over its last 10 games. The Patriots are coming off a 35-31 loss to Buffalo that snapped their winning streak and exposed how thin they are on defense, and now they roll into Baltimore without multiple defensive starters in the back seven, including key linebackers Harold Landry and Robert Spillane plus starting corners Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones, which is a brutal setup against Jackson’s dual-threat profile and a Ravens offense that just dropped a 24-0 road shutout on Cincinnati. Jackson has historically punished New England on the ground, averaging over 70 rushing yards per game with multiple rushing scores against the Patriots, and he’s trending healthier after a brief illness, while Drake Maye brings plenty of upside (over 3,500 passing yards with an efficient TD/INT line) but now faces a Ravens defense that’s quietly rounded into form and just smothered the Bengals. With Baltimore fighting to stay in the AFC North and wildcard race and New England trying to protect a one-game cushion over Buffalo in the AFC East, the motivational edge is high on both sides, but the combination of Jackson’s track record versus this opponent, Baltimore’s improving defense, and the Patriots’ cluster injuries on defense makes laying the -150 moneyline on the Ravens my preferred play, earning a B+ grade for strong win probability but only moderate payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 12:06

The total looks a touch light at 48 when you marry New England’s offensive consistency with Baltimore’s volatility and the injury context on both defenses, so I lean to the Over. The Patriots have scored at least 23 points in each of their last 10 games behind Drake Maye’s efficient first full season under center, while the Ravens’ offense, with Jackson plus a resurgent Derrick Henry and explosive Zay Flowers, has shown a ceiling in the high 20s even when the passing game isn’t perfectly clean. On the other side of the ball, New England’s pass defense has been top-half by yardage but comes in missing multiple starters at corner and linebacker, and Baltimore’s secondary and front-seven have been hammered all season, ranking in the bottom third of the league against the pass and still juggling injuries along the line and at corner despite getting some stars back to full participation. In a primetime game with real playoff leverage for both teams, Jackson’s rushing ability against a depleted Patriots box, combined with Maye’s willingness to push the ball against an attackable Ravens secondary, points toward sustained drives, chunk plays, and enough red-zone trips for both sides to push this past 48, making Over 48 at -110 a B-grade play with a reasonable edge but not quite elite value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 12:06

Against the number, the value swings back toward New England, as taking the Patriots at +3 assumes Baltimore ekes out a close win more often than it rolls, which fits both the matchup and the current form of these teams. The Patriots have been outstanding over the past two months, going 9-1 in that span and winning tough road games in Buffalo, New Orleans, Tennessee, Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, with Drake Maye showing poise in one-score environments even in last week’s narrow loss to the Bills, and that travel-tested profile matters in a hostile Sunday night spot. Baltimore certainly has the higher ceiling with Jackson’s dual-threat ability and a run game that just bulldozed Cincinnati, but the Ravens have also mixed in some flat home showings and are only a game over .500, while still dealing with offensive-line and defensive-back injuries that can show up late in games when depth is stressed. With New England’s offense humming, its defense weakened but schemed well enough to force Jackson into a few third-and-longs, and both teams treating this like a playoff game, the most likely script is a Ravens win by a field goal or less, which makes Patriots +3 at -115 a solid B-grade play that captures both a potential outright upset and the classic 23-20 or 27-24 Baltimore home win. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 12:06