Canadiens vs Capitals

With Nick Suzuki driving a suddenly deep Montreal offense, the Canadiens hit Washington riding a 7-2-1 surge and fresh off last night’s 6-3 third-period blitz of Vancouver, but they’re also on the second leg of a back-to-back with travel into D.C. after an already heavy stretch of games. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/nhl/quick-third-period-flurry-sends-canadiens-past-canucks--flm-2026-01-13/?utm_source=openai)) The Capitals are only 4-5-1 in their last 10 and come off a narrow 3-2 loss in Nashville, yet they’re still 13-8-3 at Capital One Arena and have quietly given up just two five-on-five goals across their last three outings, a profile that tends to travel well to tight home wins. ([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/capitals/news/caps-open-homestand-vs-habs)) Washington’s forward group is thinner without Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson (and with Justin Sourdif and Jakob Chychrun banged up recently), but Ovechkin is back on a heater and has a long history of burning Montreal, from his November hat trick and four-point night in the 8-4 win at Bell Centre to his multi-goal, OT-winner performance that helped bounce the Habs from last spring’s first-round series. ([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/capitals/news/caps-lose-dubois-for-extended-period?utm_source=openai)) With both teams sitting in playoff positions and separated by only a handful of points in the standings, this shapes up as a high-leverage swing game in which Washington’s rest advantage, home-ice metrics, and sustained head-to-head edge slightly outweigh Montreal’s current form at the price. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/standings?utm_source=openai)) I’m backing the Capitals moneyline at -162 as a B-grade play: a justified favorite with a reasonable edge, but not such a mispriced number that it deserves a bigger investment. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:30

These teams have been playing wide-open hockey: over their last 10 games, Montreal is averaging 4.0 goals for and 2.7 against while Washington sits at 3.6 for and 3.3 against, and the first meeting this season detonated into a 12-goal 8-4 Capitals win behind an Ovechkin hat trick. ([washingtonpost.com](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nhl/2026/01/13/canadiens-capitals-preview/e755388e-f05f-11f0-a4dc-effc74cb25af_story.html)) Montreal’s power play has driven a 10-4-0 record when it connects, with Caufield, Suzuki, and Lane Hutson fueling a high-skill attack, while the Caps just popped two power-play goals in Nashville and now bring that uptick into a matchup where the Habs’ PK finally showed cracks after a long perfect run. ([washingtonpost.com](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nhl/2026/01/13/canadiens-capitals-preview/e755388e-f05f-11f0-a4dc-effc74cb25af_story.html)) Add in Montreal’s back-to-back fatigue (likely forcing them to lean on both Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler over this mini-trip), Washington’s injury-thinned forward depth that concentrates scoring through Ovechkin and the top six, and projection markets hanging implied totals in the mid-6s, and the game script tilts strongly toward another up-and-down night. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/nhl/quick-third-period-flurry-sends-canadiens-past-canucks--flm-2026-01-13/?utm_source=openai)) With the number set at 6 and the over dealing at -125, I like Over 6 (-125) as a B+ play: a high-scoring matchup profile with multiple paths to 7+ goals and the safety net of a push if it lands exactly on six. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:30

Even while I lean Washington on the moneyline, the puckline tells a different story: Montreal’s 13-4-5 road record and 7-2-1 heater suggest a team that rarely gets blown out, and Washington’s recent 6-8-4 stretch has featured a string of one-goal grinders, including Sunday’s 3-2 loss in Nashville. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/standings?utm_source=openai)) The Capitals are still without Dubois and Wilson—two of their best matchup forwards and net-front presences—and have been managing other bumps and bruises through the lineup, while Montreal’s core of Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky and a now-healthy blue line featuring Kaiden Guhle, Lane Hutson, Mike Matheson, and newcomer Noah Dobson is intact and eating tough minutes. ([nhl.com](https://www.nhl.com/capitals/news/caps-lose-dubois-for-extended-period?utm_source=openai)) Given how often these teams have traded tight games in Washington—spanning last spring’s playoff series and multiple OT thrillers—and with most projection models showing Washington favored by roughly a single-goal margin at home, I prefer taking the “protection” side of the puckline with Montreal +1.5 at -175 over chasing a Caps -1.5 at +145. ([tsn.ca](https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/nick-suzuki-scores-in-overtime-to-lift-montreal-canadiens-past-washington-capitals-1.2233963?utm_source=openai)) I’ll grade Canadiens +1.5 (-175) a B- pick: expensive juice on the dog, but a high-likelihood cushion in a matchup where everything points to Washington winning more often than not—but usually not by multiple goals. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:30