Canadiens vs Mammoth

Utah comes in on a two-game heater, outscoring opponents 8-3 and improving to 12-8-3 overall with a 7-2-1 mark at home, while Montreal has only recently stabilized after a five-game losing streak capped by an 8-4 drubbing in Washington before a much-needed 5-2 win over Toronto snapped the skid. Even though the Canadiens blasted the Mammoth 6-2 in Montreal earlier this month—on the back of two goals from Caufield plus multi-point nights from Oliver Kapanen and Alex Newhook—this rematch shifts to altitude, where Utah’s defensive profile (league-best shots allowed per game, strong penalty kill) and home-ice comfort have been markedly better than their road form. Montreal’s injury list is a real concern for a moneyline upset: Kirby Dach, Alex Newhook, Patrik Laine, and Kaiden Guhle are all on injured reserve, stripping depth from their center group and blue line, while Utah’s only notable issue is Sean Durzi trending toward a return to an otherwise intact top-four that already drives play well in front of Karel Vejmelka. With Utah holding the better goal differential, superior home record, and slightly stronger five-on-five metrics, the Mammoth at -140 offer a reasonable blend of win probability and price despite Montreal’s earlier dominance in the season series, so I’m backing Utah on the moneyline and grading it a B+ for solid confidence and decent value rather than a slam-dunk premium edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:58am

Montreal’s games have quietly turned into track meets—72 goals for and 76 against through 21 contests—while Utah sits at 71 scored and 68 allowed through 23, which puts both clubs in the 3-plus goals-for, 3-ish goals-against neighborhood and creates a natural path to seven or more combined. The first meeting finished 6-2 for the Habs with Caufield striking twice and secondary scoring from Kapanen, Newhook, Nick Suzuki, and Kirby Dach, while Utah still generated chances and goals through Lawson Crouse and Kailer Yamamoto, and now the Mammoth’s top line is even hotter thanks to Cooley’s recent four-goal eruption. Current form suggests some volatility: Montreal just went from conceding eight in Washington to tightening up in a 5-2 win over Toronto, and Utah followed a string of one-goal grinders with that 5-1 statement over Vegas, so there’s real downside risk if Vejmelka and Jakub Dobes both show well. That said, Montreal’s blue line (Noah Dobson, Lane Hutson, Mike Matheson) is heavily involved offensively, Utah’s transition game with Cooley, Nick Schmaltz, and Clayton Keller thrives on counterpunching mistakes, and the Habs’ depleted forward group should mean more ice for their best creators, which tends to raise event levels rather than lower them. With the total set at 6.5 at an even 100 on the Over, I like the Over 6.5 as a modest value play driven by offensive talent and prior head-to-head scoring, but I cap it at a B grade because Utah’s stingy shot suppression and strong penalty kill could still drag this into a 3-2 or 4-2 final. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:58am

Across their brief head-to-head history, two of the three meetings between these franchises have landed on one- or two-goal margins (3-2 OT, 5-3, plus this month’s 6-2 outlier in Montreal), and Utah’s recent schedule has been dominated by tight finishes—three straight overtime losses followed by a 3-2 win over the Rangers and only then that 5-1 blowout of Vegas—pointing toward a distribution of outcomes that favors a close game more often than a runaway. Even with Dach, Newhook, Laine, and Guhle on the shelf, Montreal can still lean heavily on a top group of Suzuki and Caufield (who already punished the Mammoth for two goals and a multi-point night in the 6-2 win) supported by an active defense corps, making it more likely they either win outright or keep the margin to a single goal if Utah’s depth and home-ice edge prevail. Utah’s case for a regulation win is strong—better goal differential, elite shot suppression, good penalty kill, and a red-hot Cooley driving their top line at home—but the moneyline price of -140 and a total of 6.5 both hint at a competitive, high-event contest rather than a routine two- or three-goal cover for the favorite. That combination makes Montreal +1.5 at -220 an attractive way to capture both a Habs upset and the most common Utah win scenarios, so I’ll take the Canadiens on the puckline and grade it a B+: the probability of cashing is high, but the steep -220 juice keeps it just shy of elite A-level value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:58am