Canadiens vs Maple Leafs

With Toronto on a three-game winning streak and Montreal riding back-to-back home victories into this rivalry rematch, the moneyline leans slightly toward the Maple Leafs at home despite the modest edge implied by -135. The Leafs’ top-heavy attack led by Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares has driven them to 94 goals in 27 games, while Montreal’s softer defensive numbers (94 against in 26) and negative goal differential suggest they’re more likely to crack first over 60 minutes. The main caution is in net: Joseph Woll exited the last game and is now day-to-day, so Toronto may have to lean on Anthony Stolarz or Dennis Hildeby against a Canadiens group powered by Nick Suzuki’s playmaking and Caufield’s nine-game point streak, while Montreal’s injury sheet is effectively clean, giving them more stability. Still, Toronto’s 8-4-3 home mark and recent results against Montreal this season (a 5-2 win at home and a 5-2 loss on the road) indicate they’re more likely to tilt the high-event environment their way in their own building, so the pick is Maple Leafs moneyline at -135, graded a B for a solid but not spectacular combination of win probability and price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:32am

The total sets up for another wild chapter in this rivalry, with Over 6.5 at -110 appealing given both teams’ scoring profiles and recent trends. Toronto enters with 94 goals for and 91 against in 27 games, while Montreal sits at 87 for and 94 against in 26, meaning their combined games are averaging just under seven total goals and featuring shaky defending on both sides; that’s before factoring in Joseph Woll’s uncertainty and the likelihood of Stolarz or Hildeby facing a fully healthy Montreal lineup. The Canadiens are being driven by Caufield’s nine-game point streak and Suzuki’s team-leading production, while Matthews has been a long-term problem for Montreal with nearly a goal per game against them over his career, and both teams have already traded 5-2 results head-to-head this season. Layer in Toronto’s volatile special teams, a Habs defense that bleeds chances when pinned in, and two clubs playing up-tempo hockey while jockeying in a tight Atlantic race, and the Over 6.5 at -110 earns a B+ grade for its combination of attractive price and game script that naturally leans toward seven or more goals. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:32am

On the puckline, the safer side is Montreal +1.5 at -220, even if the juice is heavy for a rivalry game that tends to tighten up late. Toronto’s current three-game win streak and strong home record do justify their status as favorites, but their profile—elite offense, middle-of-the-pack defending, and an unsettled crease with Woll banged up—creates plenty of room for a one-goal result, especially against a Canadiens group that has already beaten them 5-2 at Bell Centre and generally skates four lines with good pace when healthy. Montreal has no significant injuries on the official report, and with Suzuki driving play, Caufield on a long point streak, and emerging contributors like Lane Hutson and Jakub Dobes stabilizing the back end, they’re well-positioned to keep this within a goal even if Toronto’s stars tilt the shot clock. Given the rivalry intensity, the split of the two earlier meetings, and the Leafs’ tendency to play in high-variance, one-bounce games, taking the Habs +1.5 at -220 gets a B- grade: high likelihood of cashing, but reduced appeal due to the steep price and limited payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:32am