Canadiens vs Lightning

With Tampa Bay riding a three-game winning streak and owning a +25 goal differential, backing the Lightning on the moneyline at home leans into their form, depth and matchup edge against a Canadiens team that’s hot but less battle-tested on the road. Montreal has been rolling offensively with recent statement wins, yet they arrive without injured centers Kirby Dach and Jake Evans, thinning the middle of the ice just as they face a Lightning forward core headlined by Kucherov, Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel, all confirmed on the current ESPN roster. On the back end, Tampa is still patching things together without Victor Hedman and several other key defenders, but Andrei Vasilevskiy’s ongoing absence has been mitigated by capable work from the backup group and strong team defensive results over the last ten games. Head-to-head, Kucherov’s long-term dominance of Montreal and Tampa’s 6-1 road win earlier this month suggest the Bolts’ top-end skill can still separate, even with their blue-line injuries, though the Canadiens’ recent surge keeps this from being a slam-dunk. At -155, the Lightning moneyline offers a solid but not elite balance of probability and price, meriting a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/12/2025 09:23

The total of 6 looks a touch conservative given both teams’ recent scoring profiles and the way this specific matchup has played out, so the lean is to the Over 6 at -115 with a B- grade. Tampa Bay is averaging well over three goals per game on the season, and Montreal has been in that same neighborhood while also allowing significantly more than the Lightning, creating a natural upward pull on the combined number. Their last meeting finished 6-1 in Tampa’s favor and featured multiple dangerous looks from both sides, and Kucherov’s historical production versus the Canadiens plus Montreal’s potent top unit around Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki both point toward sustained offensive pressure. Special teams also tilt toward more scoring chances: the Canadiens’ top-tier power play will see opportunities against a Lightning team that takes plenty of penalties, even if Tampa’s penalty kill is among the league’s better units, while Tampa’s own offensive talent can punish any undisciplined stretches from a visiting group missing key forwards. The one moderating factor is Tampa’s strong defensive structure despite injuries, which lowers confidence from an A-range play to a B-, but with push protection at exactly six, the Over 6 still offers enough value to fire. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/12/2025 09:23

For the puckline, the aggressive but higher-risk play is Tampa Bay -1.5 at 170, a C+ grade that leans on their finishing talent and recent trend of decisive wins over Montreal while recognizing the volatility in laying goals against an in-form opponent. The Lightning have already beaten the Canadiens by multiple goals this season and have often turned modest leads into comfortable margins when their top six — particularly Kucherov and Point — get rolling, something Montreal’s depleted center depth without Dach and Evans may struggle to contain for 60 minutes. Tampa’s strong overall goal differential and track record of converting offensive outbursts into multi-goal victories, combined with the likelihood of an empty-net scenario if the Canadiens trail late, all support the case for the plus-money puckline over the heavily juiced Montreal side of the spread. Still, Montreal’s recent push — including convincing wins before the break and a power play that can claw back into games — plus Tampa’s injuries on defense and in goal keep the probability of a one-goal Lightning win meaningfully high, which tempers this from a stronger recommendation. As a result, Lightning -1.5 is best viewed as a smaller, upside-driven play rather than a core position. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/12/2025 09:23