Canadiens vs Penguins

Sidney Crosby leads a Penguins team that comes in on a 4-1-3 stretch with points in seven of its last eight and six straight wins over Montreal, while the Canadiens limp into Pittsburgh off consecutive regulation losses and a shaky 4-6-0 run in their last 10. Montreal’s depth takes another hit with Jake Evans ruled out for personal reasons and Kirby Dach still sidelined long term, whereas Pittsburgh is missing Evgeni Malkin, Blake Lizotte and several depth pieces but retains its core spine with Crosby, Kris Letang, Erik Karlsson and Tristan Jarry all active. Historically, this matchup tilts heavily toward Pittsburgh’s stars: Crosby has piled up 69 points in 52 career games against the Canadiens, Letang owns 39 points in 47 meetings (20 in 22 home games), and Karlsson plus Anthony Mantha have both been consistent producers versus Montreal, all of which dovetails with a current Penguins profile that features the league’s best power play and a top-tier penalty kill against a Canadiens team allowing 3.55 goals per game with a bottom-third kill despite dangerous forwards like Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Laying -120 at home on a team with this recent form, special-teams edge and long-running head-to-head dominance over Montreal grades as an A- moneyline play, balancing strong win probability with a still-reasonable price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/12/2025 09:39am

The recent trajectories set up a tug-of-war that leans me toward goals: Pittsburgh has points in seven of eight while playing a bit more open during that stretch, and Montreal’s slide has featured lopsided losses like 6-1 to Tampa Bay and 4-3 to St. Louis that underscore how volatile their games can get. On the injury front, the Canadiens’ forward group is thinner without Evans and Dach, but their remaining skill core still drives offense, while Pittsburgh’s missing forwards (notably Malkin and Lizotte) slightly dent its five-on-five depth without fully muting a top unit that’s currently backstopped by an in-form Jarry. Historically, Crosby, Malkin and Letang have shredded Montreal with roughly a point-per-game or better production over more than 50 head-to-head contests, and that dovetails with a current tactical matchup in which the Penguins’ 32.4 percent power play meets a Canadiens penalty kill stuck around 77 percent, with Montreal games already averaging roughly 3.14 goals for and 3.55 against behind an overtaxed blue line. That convergence of recent high-event results for the Habs, elite special teams and proven matchup edges for Pittsburgh’s stars nudges me toward Over 6.5 at 100 with a B grade, recognizing that the Penguins’ strong team defense and goaltending still inject some under risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/12/2025 09:39am

Given Pittsburgh’s six-game winning streak over Montreal and a broader 16-4-3 run with points in 19 of the last 23 meetings, there’s a clear pattern of the Penguins not just edging the Canadiens but often pulling away, while the current Canadiens skid with back-to-back regulation losses and repeated defensive meltdowns makes them a prime candidate to get stretched again on the road. The injury ledger cuts both ways—Montreal is down Evans and still missing Dach, which weakens their center depth and defensive structure, whereas Pittsburgh’s absences (Malkin, Lizotte, multiple depth defenders) raise some concern about secondary scoring and back-end fatigue but leave the core intact in front of Jarry. Historically, Crosby, Malkin and Letang have combined for over 130 points in 52 career games apiece versus Montreal, and Mantha’s 19 points in 24 games plus multiple game-winners against the Canadiens add another multi-goal-upside piece to a lineup that already boasts the league’s top power play and a penalty kill capable of forcing late desperation and empty-net situations against a Montreal team ranked near the bottom in goals against per game. With that mix of sustained head-to-head dominance, structural advantages and Montreal’s tendency to unravel defensively, Penguins -1.5 at 205 earns a B- grade as a higher-variance, high-upside puckline position that I’d size smaller than the moneyline but still find attractive. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/12/2025 09:39am