Canadiens vs Senators

With Montreal coming in on a two-game skid and Ottawa riding a two-game winning streak capped by an 8-4 outburst at Madison Square Garden, recent momentum ever so slightly tilts toward the home side. Key injuries lean the same way: the Canadiens remain without important depth forwards like Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach and still list Jake Evans and Patrik Laine on injured reserve or just returning to non-contact work, while Ottawa’s only notable absence is Linus Ullmark, who has rejoined practice and leaves Leevi Meriläinen handling the bulk of the recent starts. Montreal’s top line of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield has historically tormented the Senators — Caufield has 11 goals and 14 points in 15 career games against Ottawa — but Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle have already combined for multiple points each against the Habs this season, including the Senators’ 5-2 win in Montreal on December 2. With the season past the midpoint, Montreal is trying to protect a top-three spot in the Atlantic while Ottawa, eight points back, badly needs home wins to stay in the wild-card chase, and that urgency plus home ice nudges this handicap toward the Senators at roughly -125. I like Ottawa on the moneyline at this price for a B-grade play: reasonably strong edge with fair value, but not elite given Montreal’s overall form and offensive ceiling on any given night. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:50

The total is sitting at 6.5, with Over around -105 and Under near -115, and the current form of both offenses plus the matchup history points slightly toward another high-event night. Ottawa has scored 4 and 8 goals in its last two outings, while Montreal has conceded 8 goals over its past two losses, and both clubs are playing their second week of a dense January schedule that tends to loosen structure and favor scoring. Injury-wise, Montreal’s missing middle-six scoring (Newhook, Evans, and a not-yet-fully-ramped Laine) is partly offset by Ottawa lacking Ullmark, leaving a Senators goaltending tandem that has been merely average behind an aggressive, offense-first style. Historically this matchup has produced goals — both meetings this season landed on 7 (4-3 and 5-2), and the over is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-heads — with shooters like Caufield (over 3 shots per game vs Ottawa) and finishers such as Tkachuk, Stützle, and Drake Batherson consistently generating volume on both sides. With both teams averaging north of 3.2 goals for and over 3.2 against per game and jockeying for playoff positioning — Montreal to solidify, Ottawa to stay within touching distance — game state incentives (especially if one side trails) further increase the chance of an up-tempo, pull-the-goalie, 4-3-type script that clears this number slightly more often than it stays under, making Over 6.5 at -105 a B- pick: attractive but inherently volatile given the already-inflated total. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:50

Given Montreal’s current two-game losing streak and Ottawa’s two straight wins, the market has pushed the Senators into solid home-favorite territory, which in turn makes the Canadiens +1.5 puckline a pricey but interesting way to fade a full Ottawa blowout. The Canadiens’ injuries to Evans, Newhook, Laine and previously Dach reduce some of their offensive depth and make multi-goal comebacks trickier, yet Martin St-Louis has generally kept this group competitive on the road, while Ottawa’s only significant personnel question is Ullmark’s status behind Meriläinen — a situation that can still allow high-danger chances against and backdoor covers for Montreal. In the season series, both games have finished with one- or two-goal margins and have seen Montreal’s skill players like Caufield and Suzuki trade blows with Tkachuk, Stützle and Batherson, reinforcing the expectation of another tight contest rather than a runaway. With the Canadiens protecting a playoff-position cushion and Ottawa desperate for regulation wins to close the gap, late-game tactics (empty-net risk if Ottawa leads by one) do threaten this side, but Montreal’s overall profile of staying within a goal against most non-elite teams makes +1.5 at around -225 a C+ play — relatively likely to cash but carrying poor risk‑reward due to the heavy juice. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:50