Canadiens vs Panthers

Cole Caufield and the Canadiens roll into Sunrise on extra rest after a 3-0-1 surge, but despite Montreal’s recent dominance in the head-to-head (multiple wins over Florida across the last two seasons and strong individual numbers from Caufield against the Panthers), the spot still tilts slightly toward the home side on the moneyline at -140. Florida has quietly gone on a 9-3-0 heater in its last 12, with Sergei Bobrovsky backstopping them and Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart driving a top-heavy attack even while Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk remain out long term. Montreal’s own injury list is non-trivial — down the middle and on the blue line with Jake Evans, Kaiden Guhle, and Kirby Dach all sidelined — which stretches their defensive matchups on the road and increases the burden on Nick Suzuki’s line. Add in schedule dynamics (Florida playing its second game in as many nights but staying at home, Montreal traveling after a six-day break) and a Panthers team that still owns meaningful home-ice scoring punch, and Florida’s moneyline favorite status is justified, though hardly a slam dunk when weighed against Montreal’s form and historical success in this matchup. I’ll side with the Panthers to win outright but only grade it a B given the moderate price and the risk that Montreal’s rested legs and recent head-to-head edge turn this into another road upset. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/12/2025 09:25am

The total sets up as the most attractive angle, with Over 6.5 at -105 in a matchup between two teams that have been magnets for high-event hockey and leaky save percentages. Florida and its opponents have cleared 6.5 goals in the majority of their games this season, while Montreal has seen even more contests finish above that number, and their combined goals for per game sits right on the 6.5 line with combined goals against just a tick lower. The Panthers’ recent offensive form — multiple late-game explosions led by Marchand, Reinhart, and an active blue line featuring Aaron Ekblad — has held steady even with Barkov and Tkachuk unavailable, while Montreal’s top six featuring Caufield, Suzuki, Ivan Demidov, and Patrik Laine has been rolling, including a six-goal outburst in Boston. Add in poor team save percentages on both sides, Florida’s defensive fatigue risk on a back-to-back, and Montreal’s strong road shot generation, and you have a recipe where one early power-play goal could open the floodgates. With a high total already baked in the market but near even-money pricing on the Over, this is my favorite position on the board, earning a B+ grade for a blend of strong trend support and reasonable price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/12/2025 09:25am

Given how often these Canadiens have been hanging around as underdogs, the puckline value leans to Montreal +1.5 at -210, even in a building where Florida’s offense can run downhill. The Habs are on a 5-0 run against the spread overall and on the road, repeatedly cashing tickets as dogs thanks to disciplined five-on-five play and timely finishing from Caufield, Suzuki, and Demidov, while Florida is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games despite a solid straight-up record. Injuries further compress the expected scoring margin: Florida is still missing Barkov and Tkachuk and leans heavily on Marchand, Reinhart, and Carter Verhaeghe to drive offense, whereas Montreal’s issues are more about depth (Evans, Guhle, Dach) than its primary scoring core. Recent head-to-heads have often seen Montreal either win outright or keep Florida within a couple of goals, and the Canadiens also enter with a rest advantage against a Panthers team that has logged multiple high-intensity games in the past week. I expect Florida to eke out a narrow home win more often than not, making Montreal +1.5 a higher-probability but juice-heavy play that merits only a B- grade because of the steep price tag relative to the risk of an empty-net dagger. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/12/2025 09:25am