Canadiens vs Stars

Dallas hits the halfway mark of the season on a four-game losing streak, while Montreal comes in 3-1-1 over its last five but off a 2-0 shutout in St. Louis last night, setting up a classic rest-and-response spot that tilts toward the home side. With the Canadiens still missing key pieces like Patrik Laine (core surgery), Alex Newhook (ankle) and Kaiden Guhle (adductor), and depth forward Jake Evans sidelined alongside Josh Anderson, their five-on-five punch and matchup flexibility are clearly thinner than Dallas’, even with Tyler Seguin lost for the year and Casey DeSmith on non-roster IR for the Stars. Jason Robertson already torched Montreal for two goals and an assist in November’s 7-0 rout at the Bell Centre, and with Mikko Rantanen driving a power play operating near 30% against a Canadiens penalty kill in the bottom third of the league, Dallas’ top-end skill should dictate most of the high-leverage minutes. Both clubs sit third in their divisions at 41 games played, so with Central and Atlantic seeding hanging in the balance and Dallas still top-five in goal differential and goals per game, the Stars moneyline at -210 is the side, but the price pressure and recent skid cap this as a B- rather than an A-level edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/01/2026 09:23

Montreal’s recent stretch — 7-5 in Carolina, 5-4 in a shootout at Tampa, 3-2 OT in Florida before getting blanked by the Blues — underscores what their season-long numbers already say: this is a team averaging roughly 3.3 goals for and against per night with a dangerous top six but leaky structure, especially on a penalty kill hovering in the low-70s. Dallas, despite its four-game slide, still sits around 3.4 goals per game with an elite, nearly 30% power play driven by Rantanen, Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, and that man-advantage should repeatedly stress a tired Canadiens group missing several regulars and having just logged heavy travel minutes on this road swing. The prior meeting finished 7-0 to Dallas, and while a repeat blowout is unlikely, it did show how quickly the Stars can snowball chances when they get ahead, particularly against Montreal’s depth defenders and backup options in net. With the Stars’ recent defensive form wobbling — four straight games allowing at least four goals — and both teams fighting for divisional position at the midway point, the game script leans toward Montreal pushing offense even if it means trading chances, which keeps the Over 6.5 at -110 live deep into the third period; that combination of matchup history, current form and special-teams imbalance makes the Over a solid but not elite B-grade play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/01/2026 09:23

Given that Dallas is the rightful favorite but dragging a four-game losing streak into a high-pressure home date, the puckline value swings toward a Montreal side that has gone 3-1-1 over its last five and tends to live in one-goal territory thanks to a balanced attack from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov. The Canadiens are undeniably banged up with Laine, Newhook, Guhle and Evans all sidelined, yet their remaining top-nine forwards have still driven enough scoring to stay within a goal in most of their recent losses, and the blue line anchored by Lane Hutson and Mike Matheson has stabilized breakouts compared with the first month of the season. Dallas already proved it can blow this matchup open with November’s 7-0 win, but that game featured a fully healthy Stars group and a rough night from Montreal’s goaltending tandem; more recently, three of Dallas’ four losses in this skid have finished on a single-goal margin, suggesting that even when the Stars carry play, they’re not routinely clearing numbers like -1.5. With both teams sitting firmly in playoff position but every point still critical for seeding, a tighter, playoff-style tempo is more likely than another seven-goal laugher, so backing Montreal +1.5 at -138 as a B-grade play aligns with a projection of Dallas winning more often than not but by a single goal far more frequently than the earlier blowout implies. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/01/2026 09:23